A stochastic epigenetic Mendelian oligogenic disease model for type 1 diabetes.

The incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and some other complex diseases is increasing. The cause has been attributed to an undefined changing environment. We examine the role of the environment (or any changing non-genetic mechanism) in causing the rising incidence, and find much evidence against it: 1) Dizygotic twin T1D concordance is the same as siblings of patients in general; 2) If the environment is responsible for both the discordance among identical twins of patients with T1D and its rising incidence, the twin concordance rate should be rising, but it is not; 3) Migrants from high-to low-incidence countries continue to have high-incidence children; 4) TID incidence among the offspring of two T1D parents is identical to the monozygotic twin rate. On the other hand, genetic association studies of T1D have revealed strong susceptibility in the major histocompatibility complex and many optional additive genes of small effect throughout the human genome increasing T1D risk. We have, from an analysis of previously published family studies, developed a stochastic epigenetic Mendelian oligogenic (SEMO) model consistent with published observations. The model posits a few required recessive causal genes with incomplete penetrance explaining virtually all of the puzzling features of T1D, including its rising incidence and the specific low T1D incidence rates among first-degree relatives of patients. Since historic selection against any causal gene could prevent T1D, we postulate that the rising incidence is because of increasing population mixing of parents from some previously isolated populations that had selected against different causal genes.