Quantifying ecosystem services supply and demand shortfalls and mismatches for management optimisation.

Research on ecosystem services (ESs) has increased substantially in recent decades, but the findings have been slow to affect actual management, perhaps because most studies to date have neglected ESs supply and demand coupling mechanisms. Human reliance on ESs is due to the capacity of the landscape to supply services, but also to a societal need for these services. Sustainable land management requires supply and demand mismatches to be reconciled and the needs of different stakeholders to be balanced. Explicit spatial mapping of ESs supply and demand associated with land use changes can provide relevant insights for enhancing land management in urban areas. The emphasis is now shifting to enhancing sustainable land use, to ensure that supply meets or exceeds demand. In this study, a comprehensive framework comprising four core steps for quantifying ESs supply and demand changes associated with land use changes was developed and applied in a case study on Shanghai municipality, on the basis of environmental quality standards and policy goals. The balance thresholds of ESs supply and demand were derived by regression analysis between ESs and land use/land cover types. The results revealed large spatial heterogeneity in supply and demand for four key ESs tested: carbon sequestration, water retention, particulate (PM10) removal and recreation. Carbon sequestration, water retention and recreation services all showed major shortfalls in supply that changed dramatically with urban land use change. This is valuable empirical evidence and has timely policy implications for management in a rapid urbanising world.