| Literature DB >> 30305155 |
William Sones1, Steven A Julious2, Joanne C Rothwell2, Craig Robert Ramsay3, Lisa V Hampson4,5, Richard Emsley6, Stephen J Walters2, Catherine Hewitt7, Martin Bland7, Dean A Fergusson8, Jesse A Berlin9, Doug Altman1, Luke David Vale10, Jonathan Alistair Cook11.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A key step in the design of a randomised controlled trial is the estimation of the number of participants needed. The most common approach is to specify a target difference in the primary outcome between the randomised groups and then estimate the corresponding sample size. The sample size is chosen to provide reassurance that the trial will have high statistical power to detect the target difference at the planned statistical significance level. Alternative approaches are also available, though most still require specification of a target difference. The sample size has many implications for the conduct of the study, as well as incurring scientific and ethical aspects. Despite the critical role of the target difference for the primary outcome in the design of a randomised controlled trial (RCT), the manner in which it is determined has received little attention. This article reports the development of the DELTA2 guidance on the specification and reporting of the target difference for the primary outcome in a sample size calculation for a RCT.Entities:
Keywords: Clinically important difference; Delphi; Effect size; Guidance; Randomised trial; Sample size; Target difference
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30305155 PMCID: PMC6180499 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-018-2887-x
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Trials ISSN: 1745-6215 Impact factor: 2.279
Fig. 1Flow diagram
Included studies from literature review of methodological development in methods for specifying a target difference
| Study | Journal | Method | Methodological development | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hedayat | 2015 |
| Anchor | Variation in threshold-based approach to estimating the MID |
| Rouquette | 2014 |
| Anchor | Use of item response model approach to calculate M(C)ID estimate from anchor assessment |
| Zhang | 2015 |
| Anchor | Assessment of expressing MID as absolute and relative difference |
| Hollingworth | 2013 |
| HE (cost utility) | Assessment of cost-utility-based sample size approaches |
| Chen MH | 2013 |
| HE (VOI) | VOI for multistage adaptive trials from industry perspective |
| Andronis | 2016 |
| HE (VOI) | Expected value of sample information variant estimator |
| Breeze | 2015 |
| HE (VOI) | ENBS from pharmaceutical perspective using value-based pricing |
| Hall | 2012 |
| HE (VOI) | Expected net present value of sample information approach |
| Jalal | 2015 |
| HE (VOI) | Meta modelling approach to calculating the expected value of sample information |
| Madan | 2014 |
| HE (VOI) | Efficient approach to calculating the expected value of partial perfect information (applicable to calculating the expected value of sample information) |
| Maroufy | 2014 |
| HE (VOI) | Method for calculating expected net gain of sampling |
| Mckenna | 2011 |
| HE (VOI) | Exploration of the role of value of sample information analysis |
| Menzies | 2016 |
| HE (VOI) | Expected value of sampling information estimator |
| Sadatsafavi | 2013 |
| HE (VOI) | Expected value of sample information variant estimator |
| Streuten* | 2013 |
| HE (VOI) | Comprehensive review of VOI methodological developments |
| Strong | 2014 |
| HE (VOI) | Meta modelling approach to calculating the expected value of sample information |
| Welton | 2014 |
| HE (VOI) | Application of expected value of sampling information to a cluster trial |
| Welton | 2015 |
| HE (VOI) | ENBS accounting for heterogeneity in treatment effects |
| Willan | 2011 |
| HE (VOI) | Framework for exploring the perspective of societal decision-maker and industry |
| Willan | 2012 |
| HE (VOI) | Accounting for between-study variation in value of information approach |
| Kirkby | 2011 |
| Opinion seeking | Survey approach to estimate MCID in trial setting |
| Ross | 2012 |
| Opinion seeking | Survey approach to estimate MCID with three treatment options |
| Chen H | 2013 |
| Pilot/Preliminary study | Comparison of approaches to using SD from preliminary study (e.g. pilot or phase 2 study) |
| Fay | 2013 |
| Pilot/Preliminary study | Variation in approach to using SD from preliminary study (e.g. pilot or phase 2 study) |
| Kirby | 2015 |
| Pilot/Preliminary study | Variation in approaches to discounting evidence from preliminary study |
| Sim | 2012 |
| Pilot/Preliminary study | Inflation factor for pilot study SD estimate for use in trial sample size calculation |
| Whitehead | 2016 |
| Pilot/Preliminary study | Assessment of size of pilot study needed to inform main trial |
| Valentine | 2016 |
| SES | Alternative effect size metric proposed |
*This review summarised a substantial number of variants/generalisations in the VOI methods applicable to the sample size calculation of a RCT
ENBS expected value of net benefit sampling, HE health economics, MID minimally important difference MCID minimal clinically important difference, SD standard deviation, SES standardised effect size, VOI value of information
Delphi participants’ demographics
| Question | Response | Count (percentage of participants) |
|---|---|---|
| Your role in RCTs (select all that apply): | Involved in analysis of RCTs | 42 (61%) |
| Involved in RCT design (Collaborating Clinician) | 7 (10%) | |
| Involved in RCT design (Lead/Chief Investigator) | 23 (33%) | |
| Involved in RCT design (Statistician/Methodologist) | 49 (71%) | |
| Other (Please specify) | 16 (23%) | |
| Serves on a funding panel/board which evaluates applications for RCT funding | 43 (62%) | |
| Primary RCT related affiliation: | Academic institution | 57 (83%) |
| Contract research organisation | 2 (3%) | |
| Funder of RCTs (e.g. NIHR in the UK or NIH in the US) | 5 (7%) | |
| Healthcare provider (e.g. NHS in the UK) | 3 (4%) | |
| Pharmaceutical/medical device company | 2 (3%) | |
| Where do you work? If you work across Europe or Internationally please choose the category in which the majority of your work is performed | Canada | 3 (4%) |
| Ireland | 1 (1%) | |
| Other European Country | 1 (1%) | |
| UK | 55 (80%) | |
| US | 9 (13%) | |
| Australasia | 0 (0%) | |
| Other | 0 (0%) |
NHS National Health Service, NIH National Institutes of Health, NIHR National Institute for Health Research, RCT randomised controlled study
Fig. 2Round 1 Delphi online questionnaire responses. Specific topics to address within target difference estimation guidance
Fig. 3Round 1 Delphi online questionnaire responses. Alternative trial designs to address within target difference estimation guidance
Fig. 4Round 2 Delphi online questionnaire responses