Steven G Rothrock1, David D Cassidy2, Drew Bienvenu3, Erich Heine3, Brian Guetschow3, Joshua G Briscoe4, Sean F Isaak5, Kenneth Chang3, Mikaela Devaux3. 1. Department of Emergency Medicine, Dr. P. Phillips Hospital, Orlando Health, United States of America. 2. Department of Emergency Medicine, Orlando Regional Medical Center (ORMC), Orlando Health, United States of America; Department of Emergency Medicine, Residency in Emergency Medicine, Orlando Health, Orlando, FL, United States of America. 3. Department of Emergency Medicine, Residency in Emergency Medicine, Orlando Health, Orlando, FL, United States of America. 4. Department of Emergency Medicine, Orlando Regional Medical Center (ORMC), Orlando Health, United States of America; Department of Emergency Medicine, South Lake Hospital, Orlando Health, United States of America; Department of Emergency Medicine, Residency in Emergency Medicine, Orlando Health, Orlando, FL, United States of America. 5. Department of Emergency Medicine, South Seminole Hospital, Orlando Health, United States of America.
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To predict severe sepsis/septic shock in ED patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of patients ≥18 admitted to two urban hospitals with a combined ED census of 162,000. Study cases included patients with severe sepsis/septic shock admitted via the ED. Controls comprised admissions without severe sepsis/septic shock. Using multivariate logistic regression, a prediction rule was constructed. The model's AUROC was internally validated using 1000 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: 143 study and 286 control patients were evaluated. Features predictive of severe sepsis/septic shock included: SBP ≤ 110 mm Hg, shock index/SI ≥ 0.86, abnormal mental status or GCS < 15, respirations ≥ 22, temperature ≥ 38C, assisted living facility residency, disabled immunity. Two points were assigned to SI and temperature with other features assigned one point (mnemonic: BOMBARD). BOMBARD was superior to SIRS criteria (AUROC 0.860 vs. 0.798, 0.062 difference, 95% CI 0.022-0.102) and qSOFA scores (0.860 vs. 0.742, 0.118 difference, 95% CI 0.081-0.155) at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock. A BOMBARD score ≥ 3 was more sensitive than SIRS ≥ 2 (74.8% vs. 49%, 25.9% difference, 95% CI 18.7-33.1) and qSOFA ≥ 2 (74.8% vs. 33.6%, 41.2% difference, 95% CI 33.2-49.3) at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock. A BOMBARD score ≥ 3 was superior to SIRS ≥ 2 (76% vs. 45%, 32% difference, 95% CI 10-50) and qSOFA ≥ 2 (76% vs. 29%, 47% difference, 95% CI 25-63) at predicting sepsis mortality. CONCLUSION: BOMBARD was more accurate than SIRS and qSOFA at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock and sepsis mortality.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To predict severe sepsis/septic shock in ED patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of patients ≥18 admitted to two urban hospitals with a combined ED census of 162,000. Study cases included patients with severe sepsis/septic shock admitted via the ED. Controls comprised admissions without severe sepsis/septic shock. Using multivariate logistic regression, a prediction rule was constructed. The model's AUROC was internally validated using 1000 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: 143 study and 286 control patients were evaluated. Features predictive of severe sepsis/septic shock included: SBP ≤ 110 mm Hg, shock index/SI ≥ 0.86, abnormal mental status or GCS < 15, respirations ≥ 22, temperature ≥ 38C, assisted living facility residency, disabled immunity. Two points were assigned to SI and temperature with other features assigned one point (mnemonic: BOMBARD). BOMBARD was superior to SIRS criteria (AUROC 0.860 vs. 0.798, 0.062 difference, 95% CI 0.022-0.102) and qSOFA scores (0.860 vs. 0.742, 0.118 difference, 95% CI 0.081-0.155) at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock. A BOMBARD score ≥ 3 was more sensitive than SIRS ≥ 2 (74.8% vs. 49%, 25.9% difference, 95% CI 18.7-33.1) and qSOFA ≥ 2 (74.8% vs. 33.6%, 41.2% difference, 95% CI 33.2-49.3) at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock. A BOMBARD score ≥ 3 was superior to SIRS ≥ 2 (76% vs. 45%, 32% difference, 95% CI 10-50) and qSOFA ≥ 2 (76% vs. 29%, 47% difference, 95% CI 25-63) at predicting sepsis mortality. CONCLUSION: BOMBARD was more accurate than SIRS and qSOFA at predicting severe sepsis/septic shock and sepsis mortality.
Authors: Steven G Rothrock; David D Cassidy; Brian Guetschow; Drew Bienvenu; Erich Heine; Joshua Briscoe; Nicholas Toselli; Michelle Russin; Daniel Young; Caitlin Premuroso; David Bailey Journal: J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open Date: 2020-06-21