SAS® Macros for Computing Causal Mediated Effects in Two- and Three-Wave Longitudinal Models.

Mediation analysis is a statistical technique for investigating the extent to which a mediating variable transmits the effect of an independent variable to a dependent variable. Because it is used in many fields, there have been rapid developments in statistical mediation. The most cutting-edge statistical mediation analysis focuses on the causal interpretation of mediated effects. Causal inference is particularly challenging in mediation analysis because of the difficulty of randomizing subjects to levels of the mediator. The focus of this paper is on updating three existing SAS® macros (%TWOWAVEMED, %TWOWAVEMONTECARLO, and %TWOWAVEPOSTPOWER, presented at SAS® Global Forum 2017) in two important ways. First, the macros are updated to incorporate new cutting-edge methods for estimating longitudinal mediated effects from the Potential Outcomes Framework for causal inference. The two new methods are inverse-propensity weighting, an application of propensity scores, and sequential G-estimation. The causal inference methods are revolutionary because they frame the estimation of mediated effects in terms of differences in potential outcomes, which align more naturally with how researchers think about causal inference. Second, the macros are updated to estimate mediated effects across three waves of data. The combination of these new causal inference methods and three waves of data enable researchers to test how causal mediated effects develop and maintain over time.