Lifetime risk of cardiometabolic mortality according to vitamin D status of middle and older-aged adults: NHANES III mortality follow-up.

The predictive value of total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D, a biomarker of vitamin D status) in relation to lifetime risk of cardiometabolic mortality is not known. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between standardized and annualized total 25(OH)D levels and lifetime risk for cardiometabolic mortality in middle- to older-aged adults. In this study, we followed up 7958 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1988 to 1994 (NHANES III) until the occurrence of cardiometabolic death or attainment of 95 years of age (median follow-up 17.9 years, 1371 cardiometabolic-deaths). Lifetime risks were estimated according to recommended total 25(OH)D cutoffs by national guidelines, and a combination of total 25(OH)D status and traditional risk factor burden. We also explored variation in lifetime risk estimates by levels of body mass index (BMI). The results of this study showed that annualized total 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L was associated with high lifetime risk of cardiometabolic mortality (40%). Lifetime risks of cardiometabolic mortality were similar for annualized levels between 30-< 50 nmol/L, 50-< 75 nmol/L and ≥75 nmol/L (31-33%). Lifetime risk was highest among participants with annualized total 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L and ≥2 major traditional risk factors (45%), whereas lifetime risk was lowest among participants with annualized 25(OH)D ≥30 nmol/L and low-intermediate risk factors (28%). Lifetime risk estimates were similar across BMI categories. In conclusion, a single measurement of vitamin D deficiency (annualized levels <30 nmol/L) in middle- to older-aged adults is a strong predictor of high lifetime risk for cardiometabolic mortality, particularly among those with high burden of traditional risk factors.