Mariana A Vasconcelos1, Ana Cristina Simões E Silva1, Izabella R Gomes1, Rafaela A Carvalho1, Sergio V Pinheiro1, Enrico A Colosimo2, Peter Yorgin3, Robert H Mak3, Eduardo A Oliveira4,5. 1. Pediatric Nephrourology Division, Department of Pediatrics, National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) of Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), R. Engenheiro Amaro Lanari 389/501, Belo Horizonte, MG, 30310-580, Brazil. 2. Department of Statistics, UFMG, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. 3. Division of Pediatric Nephrology, Rady Children's Hospital San Diego, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA. 4. Pediatric Nephrourology Division, Department of Pediatrics, National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) of Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), R. Engenheiro Amaro Lanari 389/501, Belo Horizonte, MG, 30310-580, Brazil. eduolive812@gmail.com. 5. Visiting Scholar, Division of Pediatric Nephrology, Rady Children's Hospital San Diego, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA. eduolive812@gmail.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Posterior urethral valves (PUVs) are associated with severe consequences to the urinary tract and are a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study was to develop clinical predictive model of CKD in a cohort of patients with PUVs. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 173 patients with PUVs were systematically followed up at a single tertiary unit. The primary endpoint was CKD ≥ stage 3. Survival analyses were performed by Cox regression proportional hazard models with time-fixed and time-dependent covariables. RESULTS: Mean follow-up time was 83 months (SD, 70 months). Sixty-five children (37.6%) developed CKD stage ≥ 3. After adjustment by the time-dependent Cox model, baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, hypertension, and proteinuria remained as predictors of the endpoint. After adjustment by time-fixed model, three variables were predictors of CKD ≥ stage 3: baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, and proteinuria. The prognostic risk score was divided into three categories: low-risk (69 children, 39.9%), medium-risk (45, 26%), and high-risk (59, 34.1%). The probability of CKD ≥ stage 3 at 10 years age was estimated as 6%, 40%, and 70% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). The main limitation was the preclusion of some relevant variables, especially bladder dysfunction, that might contribute to a more accurate prediction of renal outcome. CONCLUSION: The model accurately predicts the risk of CKD in PUVs patients. This model could be clinically useful in applying timely intervention and in preventing the impairment of renal function.
BACKGROUND: Posterior urethral valves (PUVs) are associated with severe consequences to the urinary tract and are a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study was to develop clinical predictive model of CKD in a cohort of patients with PUVs. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 173 patients with PUVs were systematically followed up at a single tertiary unit. The primary endpoint was CKD ≥ stage 3. Survival analyses were performed by Cox regression proportional hazard models with time-fixed and time-dependent covariables. RESULTS: Mean follow-up time was 83 months (SD, 70 months). Sixty-five children (37.6%) developed CKD stage ≥ 3. After adjustment by the time-dependent Cox model, baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, hypertension, and proteinuria remained as predictors of the endpoint. After adjustment by time-fixed model, three variables were predictors of CKD ≥ stage 3: baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, and proteinuria. The prognostic risk score was divided into three categories: low-risk (69 children, 39.9%), medium-risk (45, 26%), and high-risk (59, 34.1%). The probability of CKD ≥ stage 3 at 10 years age was estimated as 6%, 40%, and 70% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). The main limitation was the preclusion of some relevant variables, especially bladder dysfunction, that might contribute to a more accurate prediction of renal outcome. CONCLUSION: The model accurately predicts the risk of CKD in PUVs patients. This model could be clinically useful in applying timely intervention and in preventing the impairment of renal function.
Authors: Osama M Sarhan; Alaa A El-Ghoneimi; Tamer E Helmy; Mohamed S Dawaba; Ahmad M Ghali; El-Houssiny I Ibrahiem Journal: J Urol Date: 2011-04-28 Impact factor: 7.450
Authors: Grigorios Kousidis; David F M Thomas; Henry Morgan; Nadeem Haider; Ramnath Subramaniam; Sally Feather Journal: BJU Int Date: 2008-05-15 Impact factor: 5.588
Authors: Fernanda P Costa; Ana C Simões E Silva; Robert H Mak; Joachim H Ix; Mariana A Vasconcelos; Cristiane S Dias; Carolina C Fonseca; Maria Christina L Oliveira; Eduardo A Oliveira Journal: Clin Kidney J Date: 2019-08-19