[Attitude to the disease model and self-help groups as predictors of participation in after care and of therapeutic outcome in alcoholic patients].

The study was conducted to determine the predictive value of attitudes towards the goals derived from the disease model of alcoholism (life-long acceptance of alcoholic status and endorsement of abstinence) as well as towards self-help groups. The criteria to be predicted were the intention to participate and actual participation in self-help groups as well as four indicators of therapeutic success. Only in cross-sectional analysis were significant correlations found. Longitudinally, there were no relevant relationships between the attitudes expressed by the patients at the end of inpatient treatment (t1) and subsequent participation in self-help groups or indicators of therapeutic success (t2: follow-up, 9 month after discharge). The discrepancy between cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis can be attributed to the fact that attitudes become increasingly less stable with time. This indicates that it is only possible to a limited extent to predict from the attitudes expressed during inpatient treatment how patients will actually behave in daily life outside the clinic. The consequences of these findings for therapy are discussed.