Probabilistic risk assessment and risk mapping of metals in tropical estuarine sediments using the Aquarisk model.

Total sediment concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, As, and Hg obtained from the Ankobra, Sakumo II, and Volta estuaries in Ghana were used to generate contaminant probability density distributions and species sensitivity distributions in AQUARISK. Results of the tier 1 assessment showed Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were not of concern in the Ankobra as their measured values and the 99th percentile of the fitted distributions were lower than the SQG low-trigger values. Mercury (Hg) and As were however, identified to be of concern in this estuary. In the Sakumo II estuary, Cu, Cd, Pb, and Hg have been identified to be of concern because their concentrations are higher than the SQG low-trigger values. Hg has been identified as the only metal of concern in the Volta estuary. The total proportion of species likely to be affected by the combined concentration of Cd, Cu, and Zn measured from Ankobra, Sakumo II, and Volta were 14%, 16%, and 12%, respectively, according to the Bur III distributional analysis of the ecotoxicology data. The measured median sediment concentrations of As and Hg in the Ankobra estuary greatly exceeded the median sediment concentration targets to achieve a 5% or less exceedence of the SQG low value. Similarly, in the Sakumo II estuary, the measured median sediment concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Hg greatly exceeded the median sediment concentration targets to achieve a 5% or less exceedence of the SQG low. For the Volta estuary however, other metals except Hg fall below the target values.