Mario A Carvajal1, Alberto J Alaniz1, Ignacio Núñez-Hidalgo1,2, Carlos González-Césped1,3. 1. Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio Ambiente - Ecogeografía, Miguel Claro 2550, Nuñoa, Santiago, Chile. 2. Laboratorio de Ecología Geográfica. Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile. 3. Laboratorio de Entomología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Exactas, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile. Av. Sta. Rosa 11735, La Pintana, Santiago, Chile.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The insect Bagrada hilaris (Burmeister) an important pest worldwide, mainly due to the serious economic losses incurred and the large number of zones invaded. However, current and future spatial distributions of this pest, and the total area of cropland potentially affected have not been estimated. Here, we aim to: (1) estimate the potential geographic distribution of B. hilaris; (2) quantify the total area of cropland potentially affected worldwide, and in two recently colonized zones (California and Chile); and (3) estimate future changes in distribution under different climate change scenarios. RESULTS: We found that B. hilaris shows high environmental suitability in Mediterranean and arid regions, potentially affecting 1 108 184.1 km2 of cropland worldwide. The most affected continents were Asia and America, with 309 659.8 and 294 638.6 km2 of cropland at risk. More than 50% of cropland areas are at risk in seven countries. In California and central Chile, 43.7% and 50% of susceptible crops are at a high level of risk, respectively. Climate change scenarios predict an increase in the potential distribution of B. hilaris worldwide; America being the most affected continent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a spatially explicit baseline from which to focus efforts on the prevention, management and control of this pest worldwide.
BACKGROUND: The insect Bagrada hilaris (Burmeister) an important pest worldwide, mainly due to the serious economic losses incurred and the large number of zones invaded. However, current and future spatial distributions of this pest, and the total area of cropland potentially affected have not been estimated. Here, we aim to: (1) estimate the potential geographic distribution of B. hilaris; (2) quantify the total area of cropland potentially affected worldwide, and in two recently colonized zones (California and Chile); and (3) estimate future changes in distribution under different climate change scenarios. RESULTS: We found that B. hilaris shows high environmental suitability in Mediterranean and arid regions, potentially affecting 1 108 184.1 km2 of cropland worldwide. The most affected continents were Asia and America, with 309 659.8 and 294 638.6 km2 of cropland at risk. More than 50% of cropland areas are at risk in seven countries. In California and central Chile, 43.7% and 50% of susceptible crops are at a high level of risk, respectively. Climate change scenarios predict an increase in the potential distribution of B. hilaris worldwide; America being the most affected continent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a spatially explicit baseline from which to focus efforts on the prevention, management and control of this pest worldwide.
Authors: Michael J Grodowitz; Dawn E Gundersen-Rindal; Brad Elliott; Richard Evans; Michael E Sparks; Darcy A Reed; Godfrey P Miles; Margaret L Allen; Thomas M Perring Journal: J Insect Sci Date: 2022-01-01 Impact factor: 1.857
Authors: Claude Bragard; Paula Baptista; Elisavet Chatzivassiliou; Francesco Di Serio; Paolo Gonthier; Josep Anton Jaques Miret; Annemarie Fejer Justesen; Christer Sven Magnusson; Panagiotis Milonas; Juan A Navas-Cortes; Stephen Parnell; Roel Potting; Philippe Lucien Reignault; Emilio Stefani; Hans-Hermann Thulke; Wopke Van der Werf; Antonio Vicent Civera; Jonathan Yuen; Lucia Zappalà; Jean-Claude Grégoire; Chris Malumphy; Virag Kertesz; Andrea Maiorano; Alan MacLeod Journal: EFSA J Date: 2022-02-03
Authors: Nancy R Power; Paul F Rugman-Jones; Richard Stouthamer; Fatemeh Ganjisaffar; Thomas M Perring Journal: PeerJ Date: 2022-09-13 Impact factor: 3.061