Manfred E Beutel1, Elmar Brähler1, Joerg Wiltink1, Jasmin Ghaemi Kerahrodi1, Juliane Burghardt1, Matthias Michal1, Andreas Schulz2, Phillipp S Wild2, Thomas Münzel3, Irene Schmidtmann4, Karl J Lackner5, Norbert Pfeiffer6, Andreas Borta7, Ana N Tibubos1. 1. Department of Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy,University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz,Germany. 2. Preventive Cardiology and Preventive Medicine, Center for Cardiology,University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz,Germany. 3. Center for Translational Vascular Biology (CTVB),University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz,Germany. 4. Institute for Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics,University Medical Center Mainz,Germany. 5. Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine,University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz,Germany. 6. Department of Ophthalmology,University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz,Germany. 7. Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH Co KG,Ingelheim am Rhein,Germany.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Based on the vulnerability-stress model, we aimed to (1) determine new onset of depression in individuals who had not shown evidence of depression at baseline (5 years earlier) and (2) identify social, psychological, behavioral, and somatic predictors. METHODS: Longitudinal data of N = 10 036 participants (40-79 years) were evaluated who had no evidence of depression at baseline based on Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), no history of depression, or intake of antidepressants. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict the onset of depression. RESULTS: Prevalence of new cases of depression was 4.4%. Higher rates of women (5.1%) than men (3.8%) were due to their excess incidence <60 years of age. Regression analyses revealed significant social, psychological, behavioral, and somatic predictors: loneliness [odds ratio (OR) 2.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48-2.71], generalized anxiety (OR 2.65; 1.79-3.85), social phobia (OR 1.87; 1.34-2.57), panic (OR 1.67; 1.01-2.64), type D personality (OR 1.85; 1.47-2.32), smoking (OR 1.35; 1.05-1.71), and comorbid cancer (OR 1.58; 1.09-2.24). Protective factors were age (OR 0.88; 0.83-0.93) and social support (OR 0.93; 0.90-0.95). Stratified by sex, cancer was predictive for women; for men smoking and life events. Entered additionally, the PHQ-9 baseline score was strongly predictive (OR 1.40; 1.34-1.47), generalized anxiety became only marginally, and panic was no longer predictive. Other predictors remained significant, albeit weaker. CONCLUSIONS: Psychobiological vulnerability, stress, and illness-related factors were predictive of new onset of depression, whereas social support was protective. Baseline subclinical depression was an additional risk weakening the relationship between anxiety and depression by taking their overlap into account. Vulnerability factors differed between men and women.
BACKGROUND: Based on the vulnerability-stress model, we aimed to (1) determine new onset of depression in individuals who had not shown evidence of depression at baseline (5 years earlier) and (2) identify social, psychological, behavioral, and somatic predictors. METHODS: Longitudinal data of N = 10 036 participants (40-79 years) were evaluated who had no evidence of depression at baseline based on Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), no history of depression, or intake of antidepressants. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict the onset of depression. RESULTS: Prevalence of new cases of depression was 4.4%. Higher rates of women (5.1%) than men (3.8%) were due to their excess incidence &lt;60 years of age. Regression analyses revealed significant social, psychological, behavioral, and somatic predictors: loneliness [odds ratio (OR) 2.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48-2.71], generalized anxiety (OR 2.65; 1.79-3.85), social phobia (OR 1.87; 1.34-2.57), panic (OR 1.67; 1.01-2.64), type D personality (OR 1.85; 1.47-2.32), smoking (OR 1.35; 1.05-1.71), and comorbid cancer (OR 1.58; 1.09-2.24). Protective factors were age (OR 0.88; 0.83-0.93) and social support (OR 0.93; 0.90-0.95). Stratified by sex, cancer was predictive for women; for men smoking and life events. Entered additionally, the PHQ-9 baseline score was strongly predictive (OR 1.40; 1.34-1.47), generalized anxiety became only marginally, and panic was no longer predictive. Other predictors remained significant, albeit weaker. CONCLUSIONS: Psychobiological vulnerability, stress, and illness-related factors were predictive of new onset of depression, whereas social support was protective. Baseline subclinical depression was an additional risk weakening the relationship between anxiety and depression by taking their overlap into account. Vulnerability factors differed between men and women.
Entities:
Keywords:
Community; gender; onset of depression; vulnerability–stress model
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