Annalijn I Conklin1,2,3, Adel Daoud4, Riti Shimkhada5, Ninez A Ponce5,6,7. 1. Collaboration for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. annalijn.conklin@ubc.ca. 2. Centre for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences, Providence Healthcare Research Institute, St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, Canada. annalijn.conklin@ubc.ca. 3. WORLD Policy Analysis Center, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, USA. annalijn.conklin@ubc.ca. 4. Centre for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA. 5. Center for Health Policy Research, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, USA. 6. Center Global and Immigrant Health, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, USA. 7. Department of Health Policy and Management, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, USA.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To examine whether changes in food prices are associated with changes in obesity prevalence among women in developing countries, and assess effect modification by individual socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Longitudinal study of country-level food price inflation temporally and geographically linked to anthropometric data on non-pregnant adult women (n = 295,984) in 31 low-income and middle-income countries over the 2000-2014 time period, using separate multivariable multilevel growth models of five SES indicators. Post-estimation analysis computed the relationship between food price inflation and predicted mean probabilities of being obese, by SES. RESULTS: Rising food price inflation was strongly associated with women's obesity prevalence, and SES consistently modified the relationship. Regardless of indicator used, higher food price inflation was positively associated with obesity among women in top SES categories, but was flat or negative among women in low SES categories, averaging over time. The SES differences were widest across educational strata and were most pronounced when food price inflation was highest. Overall, for every 1-unit increase in food price inflation, predicted mean obesity prevalence was between 0.02 and 0.06 percentage points greater in women of high SES compared to low SES women. CONCLUSION: There is a strong link between food price inflation and obesity in adult women in developing countries which is clearly modified by individuals' SES. Greater food price inflation was associated with greater obesity prevalence only among women in higher SES groups, who may be net food buyers most at risk of obesity in low-income and middle-income countries.
OBJECTIVES: To examine whether changes in food prices are associated with changes in obesity prevalence among women in developing countries, and assess effect modification by individual socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Longitudinal study of country-level food price inflation temporally and geographically linked to anthropometric data on non-pregnant adult women (n = 295,984) in 31 low-income and middle-income countries over the 2000-2014 time period, using separate multivariable multilevel growth models of five SES indicators. Post-estimation analysis computed the relationship between food price inflation and predicted mean probabilities of being obese, by SES. RESULTS: Rising food price inflation was strongly associated with women's obesity prevalence, and SES consistently modified the relationship. Regardless of indicator used, higher food price inflation was positively associated with obesity among women in top SES categories, but was flat or negative among women in low SES categories, averaging over time. The SES differences were widest across educational strata and were most pronounced when food price inflation was highest. Overall, for every 1-unit increase in food price inflation, predicted mean obesity prevalence was between 0.02 and 0.06 percentage points greater in women of high SES compared to low SES women. CONCLUSION: There is a strong link between food price inflation and obesity in adult women in developing countries which is clearly modified by individuals' SES. Greater food price inflation was associated with greater obesity prevalence only among women in higher SES groups, who may be net food buyers most at risk of obesity in low-income and middle-income countries.