Examining the Timing of Women's Retirement in Urban China: A Discrete Time Hazard Rate Approach.

In spite of phenomenal wage growth in recent decades, female labor force participation in urban China has experienced a notable and puzzling decline, particularly so for women aged 40 and above. Concerns about women's status motivate an inquiry into the reasons behind the sharp drop, and consideration of how this decline may bear on their welfare. This paper estimates a probit model of labor force participation and a discrete time hazard rate model of retirement and non-retirement labor force withdrawals among urban married women aged 40 to 51. The analysis uses data from a multi-province panel data set covering the interval from 1991 to 2011. The results inform policy discussions about pension system reform in the face of population aging and declining labor supply. In addition, recommendations are offered for policy measures that would increase women's labor force attachment, even as they approach their retirement horizon.