E Christopher Ellison1, Timothy M Pawlik2, David P Way3, Bhagwan Satiani2, Thomas E Williams2. 1. The Ohio State University Department of Surgery, Columbus. Electronic address: christopher.ellison@osumc.edu. 2. The Ohio State University Department of Surgery, Columbus. 3. The Ohio State University Department of Emergency Medicine, Columbus.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In 2008, we projected that a deficit in the general surgical workforce would grow to 19% by 2050. We reexamined population-based general surgical workforce projections to determine the impact of recent changes in population estimates and trends in certification and General Surgery Residency. METHODS: We reviewed the Census Bureau data and the potential pool of general surgeons defined by American Board of Surgery certificates, residents completing Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-approved General Surgery Residency and combined American Board of Surgery and osteopathic certificates averaged from 2007-2016. The model included removal of 150 surgeons/year who subspecialize and 729 retirements/year. RESULTS: Updated census projections estimate a 2050 U.S. population of 439 million, a 19 million increase over prior census projections. From 2007-2016, the American Board of Surgery granted 10,173 certificates, averaging 1,017/year; General Surgery Residency graduations were 10,088, averaging 1,088/year; combined American Board of Surgery and osteopathic (American Osteopathic Association) certificates were 10,084, averaging 1,084/year. General surgical workforce shortage in 2050 is projected to be 7,047 (21%) based on American Board of Surgery certificates; 4,917(15%) based on General Surgery Residency completions; 5,037 (15%) based on combined American Board of Surgery and American Osteopathic Association certificates; and 57 (0%) based on hypothetical expansion of general surgeons training by 75 positions by 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Without increasing future general surgeons training numbers, the projected future general surgical workforce shortage will continue to grow.
BACKGROUND: In 2008, we projected that a deficit in the general surgical workforce would grow to 19% by 2050. We reexamined population-based general surgical workforce projections to determine the impact of recent changes in population estimates and trends in certification and General Surgery Residency. METHODS: We reviewed the Census Bureau data and the potential pool of general surgeons defined by American Board of Surgery certificates, residents completing Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-approved General Surgery Residency and combined American Board of Surgery and osteopathic certificates averaged from 2007-2016. The model included removal of 150 surgeons/year who subspecialize and 729 retirements/year. RESULTS: Updated census projections estimate a 2050 U.S. population of 439 million, a 19 million increase over prior census projections. From 2007-2016, the American Board of Surgery granted 10,173 certificates, averaging 1,017/year; General Surgery Residency graduations were 10,088, averaging 1,088/year; combined American Board of Surgery and osteopathic (American Osteopathic Association) certificates were 10,084, averaging 1,084/year. General surgical workforce shortage in 2050 is projected to be 7,047 (21%) based on American Board of Surgery certificates; 4,917(15%) based on General Surgery Residency completions; 5,037 (15%) based on combined American Board of Surgery and American Osteopathic Association certificates; and 57 (0%) based on hypothetical expansion of general surgeons training by 75 positions by 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Without increasing future general surgeons training numbers, the projected future general surgical workforce shortage will continue to grow.
Authors: David C Borgstrom; Karen Deveney; Dorothy Hughes; Isolina R Rossi; Matthew B Rossi; Randy Lehman; Stephanie LeMaster; Mark Puls Journal: Curr Probl Surg Date: 2022-06-30 Impact factor: 2.815
Authors: Giovanni Lujan; Jennifer C Quigley; Douglas Hartman; Anil Parwani; Brian Roehmholdt; Bryan Van Meter; Orly Ardon; Matthew G Hanna; Dan Kelly; Chelsea Sowards; Michael Montalto; Marilyn Bui; Mark D Zarella; Victoria LaRosa; Gerard Slootweg; Juan Antonio Retamero; Mark C Lloyd; James Madory; Doug Bowman Journal: J Pathol Inform Date: 2021-04-07
Authors: Stanley J Robboy; David Gross; Jason Y Park; Elizabeth Kittrie; James M Crawford; Rebecca L Johnson; Michael B Cohen; Donald S Karcher; Robert D Hoffman; Anthony T Smith; W Stephen Black-Schaffer Journal: JAMA Netw Open Date: 2020-07-01