| Literature DB >> 30094775 |
Tess E Youker-Smith1, Philipp H Boersch-Supan2,3, Christopher M Whipps1, Sadie J Ryan4,5.
Abstract
Amphibian ranaviruses occur globally, but we are only beginning to understand mechanisms for emergence. Ranaviruses are aquatic pathogens which can cause > 90% mortality in larvae of many aquatic-breeding amphibians, making them important focal host taxa. Host susceptibilities and virulence of ranaviruses have been studied extensively in controlled laboratory settings, but research is needed to identify drivers of infection in natural environments. Constructed ponds, essential components of wetland restoration, have been associated with higher ranavirus prevalence than natural ponds, posing a conundrum for conservation efforts, and emphasizing the need to understand potential drivers. In this study, we analyzed 4 years of Frog virus 3 prevalence and associated environmental parameters in populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and green frogs (Lithobates clamitans) in a constructed pond system. High prevalence was best predicted by low temperature, high host density, low zooplankton concentrations, and Gosner stages approaching metamorphosis. This study identified important variables to measure in assessments of ranaviral infection risk in newly constructed ponds, including effects of zooplankton, which have not been previously quantified in natural settings. Examining factors mediating diseases in natural environments, particularly in managed conservation settings, is important to both validate laboratory findings in situ, and to inform future conservation planning, particularly in the context of adaptive management.Entities:
Keywords: Constructed wetlands; Frog virus 3; Lithobates clamitans; Lithobates sylvaticus; Ranavirus; Vernal pools
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30094775 PMCID: PMC6245063 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-018-1350-5
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecohealth ISSN: 1612-9202 Impact factor: 3.184
Fig. 1a Vernal pool array within Heiberg Memorial Forest (shaded area). Pools were constructed (b) in a separate grid-patterned microarray, as well as (c) in clusters of 1, 3, or 9 pools within uniform landscape hexagonal areas. Study pools included constructed pools (open circles) with three pre-existing pools (filled circles). Sixteen pools failed to hold water at any point in the study, here designated as “dry” (crosses).
List of Explanatory Variables for Generalized Linear Models of Frog Virus 3 (FV3) Prevalence in Vernal Ponds.
| Variable | Unit | Transformation | Missingness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEMP | Temperature | °C | N/A | 15/170 |
| DENS | Areal density | individuals/m2 | Logarithmic | 27/170 |
| WLEV | Water depth | cm | N/A | 35/170 |
| GOSNER | Gosner developmental stage | Stage 1–46 (Gosner | N/A | 18/170 |
| DIST | Spatial clustering of pools | Average straight line distance (in meters) to the nearest 3 pools | Logarithmic | 0/170 |
| PLANK | Pelagic zooplankton concentration | individuals/L | Logarithmic | 82/170 |
Missingness gives the proportion of FV3 prevalence observations for which no corresponding observation of a particular environmental covariate was available.
Posterior Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the Best Predictive Model.
| Mean | SD | 95% credible interval | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 3.22 | 2.37 | − 1.30 | 7.60 |
| GOSNER | 0.08 | 0.05 | − 0.01 | 0.17 |
| TEMP | − 0.25 | 0.07 | − 0.40 | − 0.11 |
| log(DENS) | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.58 |
| WLEV | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| log(PLANK) | − 0.63 | 0.06 | − 0.75 | − 0.51 |
| log(DIST) | − 0.70 | 0.17 | − 1.04 | − 0.37 |
|
| 1.54 | 0.49 | 0.84 | 2.63 |
Fig. 2Observed Frog virus 3 prevalence in relation to environmental covariates water temperature (a), developmental stage (b), pond water level (c), host density (d), zooplankton density (e), and average distance to the three nearest neighboring ponds (f) on Frog virus 3 prevalence. Prevalence values are jittered along the y-axis by up to 0.03 units to alleviate overplotting. Symbol size reflects the number of successfully assayed tadpoles in a given sample.
Fig. 3Partial effects of environmental covariates water temperature (a), developmental stage (b), pond water level (c), host density (d), zooplankton density (e), and average distance to the three nearest neighboring ponds (f) on Frog virus 3 prevalence, as estimated in the best predictive model. Black lines represent posterior means of regression coefficients, gray lines are 1000 draws from the posterior of each regression coefficient. Predictor observations are indicated by the black tick marks along the x-axes.