| Literature DB >> 30069166 |
Fiammetta M Bozzani1, Don Mudzengi2, Tom Sumner3,4, Gabriela B Gomez1, Piotr Hippner2, Vicky Cardenas2, Salome Charalambous3,4, Richard White3,4, Anna Vassall1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Evidence on the relative costs and effects of interventions that do not consider 'real-world' constraints on implementation may be misleading. However, in many low- and middle-income countries, time and data scarcity mean that incorporating health system constraints in priority setting can be challenging.Entities:
Keywords: Constraints; Economic evaluation; Health systems; Mathematical modelling; South Africa; Tuberculosis
Year: 2018 PMID: 30069166 PMCID: PMC6065151 DOI: 10.1186/s12962-018-0113-z
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cost Eff Resour Alloc ISSN: 1478-7547
Fig. 1Summary of constraints estimation process
Projected annual growth in budget and human resources for TB under different constraint scenarios, from most to least limiting
| Year | Budget constraint | Human resource constraint | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (%) | Medium (%) | High (%) | Low (%) | Medium (%) | High (%) | |
| 2015 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2016 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 1.7 | 47.5 | 51.8 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 2018 | 1.7 | 32.2 | 34.1 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 2019 | 1.7 | 24.4 | 25.4 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | 1.7 | 19.6 | 20.3 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 2021 | 1.7 | 16.4 | 16.9 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 2022 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| 2027 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| 2029 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| 2030 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
| 2031 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
| 2032 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
| 2033 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
| 2034 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
| 2035 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
Fig. 2Modelled interventions
Base case financial resource requirements for TB services provision, 2016 US$
| Year | Passive case finding | ICF—cough triage | ICF—WHO symptoms screener | Xpert negatives follow-up | First line treatment | MDR-TB treatment | Xpert MTB/RIF diagnosis | Smear microscopy diagnosis | IPT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1,410,773 | 16,735,538 | 11,339,995 | 719,731 | 40,180,219 | 116,780,734 | 104,264,301 | 8,788,407 | 10,075,340 | 310,295,039 |
| 2016 | 1,361,274 | 16,163,576 | 13,152,808 | 713,400 | 38,432,227 | 116,926,226 | 110,340,641 | 9,300,580 | 12,055,578 | 318,446,309 |
| 2017 | 1,315,734 | 15,417,893 | 17,142,665 | 726,632 | 37,705,880 | 118,058,283 | 125,981,140 | 10,618,913 | 16,398,177 | 343,365,316 |
| 2018 | 1,275,370 | 14,936,907 | 18,332,255 | 712,543 | 35,898,981 | 114,934,319 | 129,548,686 | 10,919,620 | 17,722,633 | 344,281,313 |
| 2019 | 1,240,571 | 14,555,234 | 18,524,339 | 694,551 | 34,356,526 | 111,743,996 | 129,002,723 | 10,873,601 | 17,967,440 | 338,958,982 |
| 2020 | 1,209,293 | 14,214,061 | 18,368,678 | 676,625 | 33,071,298 | 109,171,196 | 127,087,494 | 10,712,167 | 17,835,516 | 332,346,329 |
| 2021 | 1,180,102 | 13,891,486 | 18,096,024 | 659,396 | 31,946,882 | 107,155,267 | 124,747,372 | 10,514,919 | 17,576,279 | 325,767,726 |
| 2022 | 1,152,180 | 13,578,567 | 17,787,797 | 642,850 | 30,920,793 | 105,540,398 | 122,303,518 | 10,308,927 | 17,277,749 | 319,512,780 |
| 2023 | 1,125,078 | 13,271,337 | 17,471,075 | 626,861 | 29,958,551 | 104,197,245 | 119,855,790 | 10,102,609 | 16,969,529 | 313,578,075 |
| 2024 | 1,098,620 | 12,968,654 | 17,155,575 | 611,357 | 29,044,267 | 103,043,788 | 117,439,480 | 9,898,939 | 16,662,200 | 307,922,880 |
| 2025 | 1,072,710 | 12,669,940 | 16,844,627 | 596,290 | 28,169,833 | 102,027,241 | 115,065,298 | 9,698,820 | 16,359,422 | 302,504,180 |
| 2026 | 1,047,337 | 12,375,476 | 16,540,194 | 581,648 | 27,331,230 | 101,115,987 | 112,741,285 | 9,502,929 | 16,063,288 | 297,299,373 |
| 2027 | 1,022,536 | 12,086,063 | 16,242,380 | 567,427 | 26,526,100 | 100,291,602 | 110,469,170 | 9,311,413 | 15,773,812 | 292,290,502 |
| 2028 | 998,299 | 11,801,897 | 15,950,333 | 553,607 | 25,752,333 | 99,540,603 | 108,244,943 | 9,123,934 | 15,490,056 | 287,456,007 |
| 2029 | 974,636 | 11,523,309 | 15,663,396 | 540,179 | 25,008,440 | 98,855,029 | 106,066,036 | 8,940,275 | 15,211,297 | 282,782,598 |
| 2030 | 951,549 | 11,250,556 | 15,380,642 | 527,129 | 24,292,808 | 98,228,624 | 103,928,488 | 8,760,101 | 14,936,554 | 278,256,451 |
| 2031 | 929,014 | 10,983,533 | 15,101,333 | 514,434 | 23,603,600 | 97,655,673 | 101,828,214 | 8,583,070 | 14,665,078 | 273,863,947 |
| 2032 | 907,022 | 10,722,349 | 14,824,025 | 502,070 | 22,938,847 | 97,130,242 | 99,758,485 | 8,408,613 | 14,395,348 | 269,587,000 |
| 2033 | 885,559 | 10,466,925 | 14,548,635 | 490,027 | 22,297,387 | 96,649,025 | 97,718,406 | 8,236,655 | 14,127,320 | 265,419,939 |
| 2034 | 864,608 | 10,217,086 | 14,275,791 | 478,295 | 21,678,167 | 96,209,490 | 95,710,021 | 8,067,369 | 13,861,714 | 261,362,541 |
| 2035 | 844,149 | 9,972,617 | 14,006,160 | 466,869 | 21,080,136 | 95,809,377 | 93,735,448 | 7,900,933 | 13,599,291 | 257,414,979 |
ICF intensified case-finding, MDR-TB multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, IPT isoniazid preventive therapy
Fig. 3Base case human resource time for TB services provision, share of total minutes
Fig. 42016–2035 budget requirements for interventions at reduced coverage under financial, human resource and Xpert constraints, 2016 US$ (millions). Interventions are described in Fig. 2
Incremental nurse minutes and costs of relaxing the human resource constraints for impacted interventions
| Interventions | Incremental nurse minutes needed | Nurse minutes available in private sector | Incremental salary costs | Incremental training costs | Total costs of relaxing constraint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium constraint | |||||
| 6 | 391,839,546 | 3,288,019 | 202,071,898 | 260,963,844 | 463,035,742 |
| 7 | 2,092,347,066 | 3,288,019 | 1,080,038,659 | 1,464,587,472 | 2,544,626,131 |
| 8 | 3,223,758,889 | 3,288,019 | 1,664,183,076 | 2,094,657,776 | 3,758,840,851 |
| 9 | 427,006,436 | 3,288,019 | 220,228,454 | 284,203,098 | 504,431,552 |
| 10 | 3,184,770,361 | 3,288,019 | 1,644,053,420 | 2,066,650,290 | 3,710,703,709 |
| High constraint | |||||
| 6 | 273,592 | 273,592 | 121,813 | 183,109 | 304,922 |
| 7 | 1,043,322,764 | 3,288,019 | 538,430,664 | 730,965,942 | 1,269,396,606 |
| 8 | 2,951,942,738 | 3,288,019 | 1,523,845,239 | 1,925,170,799 | 3,449,016,039 |
| 9 | 266,569 | 266,569 | 118,686 | 178,280 | 296,967 |
| 10 | 2,914,419,377 | 3,288,019 | 1,504,472,045 | 1,898,371,197 | 3,402,843,241 |