Saeide Aghamohamadi1, Kamran Hajinabi1, Katayoun Jahangiri2, Iravan Masoudi Asl3, Reza Dehnavieh4. 1. Department of Health Services Administration, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran. 2. Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies, School of Health, Safety & Environment (HSE), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran. 3. Islamic Parliament Research Center, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran. 4. Department of Health Service Management. Institute for Future Studies in Health, Kerman, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures. AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model. RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.
BACKGROUND: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures. AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model. RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.
Authors: Kourosh Kabir; Ali Bahari; Mohammad Hajizadeh; Hamid Allahverdipour; Mohammad Javad Tarrahi; Ali Fakhari; Hossein Ansari; Asghar Mohammadpoorasl Journal: Epidemiol Health Date: 2018-07-02