Ki Hong Choi1, Jeong Hoon Yang2, Taek Kyu Park1, Joo Myung Lee1, Young Bin Song1, Joo-Yong Hahn1, Seung-Hyuk Choi1, Jin-Ho Choi3, Yang Hyun Cho4, Kiick Sung4, Keumhee Carriere5, Joonghyun Ahn6, Hyeon-Cheol Gwon1. 1. Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Heart Vascular Stroke Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 2. Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Heart Vascular Stroke Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Critical Care Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: jhysmc@gmail.com. 3. Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Heart Vascular Stroke Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 4. Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 5. Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; Biostatistics and Clinical Epidemiology Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 6. Biostatistics and Clinical Epidemiology Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There are limited data to develop a risk prediction model of in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients treated with venoarterial (VA)-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI who were treated with VA-ECMO. METHODS: A total of 145 patients with AMI who underwent VA-ECMO between May 2004 and April 2016 were included from the Samsung Medical Center ECMO registry. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. To develop a new predictive scoring system, named the AMI-ECMO score, backward stepwise elimination and β coefficient-based scoring were used based on logistic regression analyses. The leave-one-out cross-validation method was performed for internal validation. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality occurred in 69 patients (47.6%). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, the AMI-ECMO score comprised 6 pre-ECMO or angiographic parameters: age> 65 years, body mass index> 25 kg/m2, Glasgow coma score <6, lactic acid> 8 mmol/L, anterior wall infarction, and no or failed revascularization. The C-statistic value of AMI-ECMO score for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.880 (95%CI, 0.820-0.940). The incidence of in-hospital mortality after VA-ECMO insertion was 6.2%, 28.1%, 51.6%, and 93.8% for AMI-ECMO score quartiles (0 to 16, 17 to 19, 20 to 26, and> 26), respectively (P <.001 for trend). The AMI-ECMO scores were also significantly associated with the estimated rate of all-cause mortality during follow-up (per 1 increase, HR, 1.11; 95%CI, 1.08-1.14; P <.001). CONCLUSIONS: The AMI-ECMO score can help predict early prognosis in AMI patients who undergo VA-ECMO.
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There are limited data to develop a risk prediction model of in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients treated with venoarterial (VA)-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI who were treated with VA-ECMO. METHODS: A total of 145 patients with AMI who underwent VA-ECMO between May 2004 and April 2016 were included from the Samsung Medical Center ECMO registry. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. To develop a new predictive scoring system, named the AMI-ECMO score, backward stepwise elimination and β coefficient-based scoring were used based on logistic regression analyses. The leave-one-out cross-validation method was performed for internal validation. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality occurred in 69 patients (47.6%). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, the AMI-ECMO score comprised 6 pre-ECMO or angiographic parameters: age> 65 years, body mass index> 25 kg/m2, Glasgow coma score <6, lactic acid> 8 mmol/L, anterior wall infarction, and no or failed revascularization. The C-statistic value of AMI-ECMO score for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.880 (95%CI, 0.820-0.940). The incidence of in-hospital mortality after VA-ECMO insertion was 6.2%, 28.1%, 51.6%, and 93.8% for AMI-ECMO score quartiles (0 to 16, 17 to 19, 20 to 26, and> 26), respectively (P <.001 for trend). The AMI-ECMO scores were also significantly associated with the estimated rate of all-cause mortality during follow-up (per 1 increase, HR, 1.11; 95%CI, 1.08-1.14; P <.001). CONCLUSIONS: The AMI-ECMO score can help predict early prognosis in AMI patients who undergo VA-ECMO.