Junichi Shindoh1,2, Yusuke Kawamura3, Yuta Kobayashi4, Yoshitaka Kiya4, Toshitaka Sugawara4, Norio Akuta3, Masahiro Kobayashi3, Yoshiyuki Suzuki3, Kenji Ikeda3, Masaji Hashimoto4. 1. Hepatobiliary-pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Toranomon Hospital, 2-2-2 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-8470, Japan. shindou-tky@umin.ac.jp. 2. Okinaka Memorial Institute for Medical Disease, Tokyo, Japan. shindou-tky@umin.ac.jp. 3. Department of Hepatology, Toranomon Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. 4. Hepatobiliary-pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Toranomon Hospital, 2-2-2 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-8470, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Given that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually suffer from dual diseases (i.e., HCC and underlying liver disease), a complete survival estimation model is difficult to establish because both the oncological stage and the underlying liver function affect the survival outcome. METHODS: A new surgical risk model for estimating the survival of patients undergoing resection for HCC was created using a cohort treated between 1995 and 2013 (training set, n = 889), and its efficacy was then validated using a cohort treated between 2014 and 2017 (validation set, n = 310). RESULTS: The following statistical model was developed based on the results of multivariate analysis: albumin-platelet (PAL) score = - 0.777 × albumin (g/dL) - 0.575 × log10 (platelet count [104/μL]) (cut-off value, - 3.77 and - 3.04 for grading). A time-dependent receiver-operating curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve for 3-year survival was 0.644 in the training set and 0.666 in the validation set. The incidences of postoperative morbidity were 14.0% for PAL grade 1, 18.7% for PAL grade 2, and 26.1% for PAL grade 3 (P = 0.039), while the incidences of refractory ascites were 2.2, 7.1, and 12.5% (P = 0.005), respectively, in the training set. The reproducibility of these results was confirmed in the validation set with morbidity rates of 13.5, 23.3, and 40.7% (P = 0.003), respectively, and the incidences of refractory ascites were 0.7, 10.7, and 22.2% (P < 0.0001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The PAL score can be used as a grading system for the stratification of survival outcomes and surgical risks of patients undergoing HCC resection.
BACKGROUND: Given that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually suffer from dual diseases (i.e., HCC and underlying liver disease), a complete survival estimation model is difficult to establish because both the oncological stage and the underlying liver function affect the survival outcome. METHODS: A new surgical risk model for estimating the survival of patients undergoing resection for HCC was created using a cohort treated between 1995 and 2013 (training set, n = 889), and its efficacy was then validated using a cohort treated between 2014 and 2017 (validation set, n = 310). RESULTS: The following statistical model was developed based on the results of multivariate analysis: albumin-platelet (PAL) score = - 0.777 × albumin (g/dL) - 0.575 × log10 (platelet count [104/μL]) (cut-off value, - 3.77 and - 3.04 for grading). A time-dependent receiver-operating curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve for 3-year survival was 0.644 in the training set and 0.666 in the validation set. The incidences of postoperative morbidity were 14.0% for PAL grade 1, 18.7% for PAL grade 2, and 26.1% for PAL grade 3 (P = 0.039), while the incidences of refractory ascites were 2.2, 7.1, and 12.5% (P = 0.005), respectively, in the training set. The reproducibility of these results was confirmed in the validation set with morbidity rates of 13.5, 23.3, and 40.7% (P = 0.003), respectively, and the incidences of refractory ascites were 0.7, 10.7, and 22.2% (P < 0.0001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The PAL score can be used as a grading system for the stratification of survival outcomes and surgical risks of patients undergoing HCC resection.
Authors: Quirino Lai; Alessandro Vitale; Tommaso M Manzia; Francesco G Foschi; Giovanni B Levi Sandri; Martina Gambato; Fabio Melandro; Francesco P Russo; Luca Miele; Luca Viganò; Patrizia Burra; Edoardo G Giannini Journal: Cancers (Basel) Date: 2019-10-15 Impact factor: 6.639