Predictors of Postdeployment Prescription Opioid Receipt and Long-term Prescription Opioid Utilization Among Army Active Duty Soldiers.

Introduction: Little is known about long-term prescription opioid utilization in the Military Health System. The objectives of this study were to examine predictors of any prescription opioid receipt, and predictors of long-term opioid utilization among active duty soldiers in the year following deployment. Materials and
Methods: The analytic sample consisted of Army active duty soldiers returning from deployment to Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom, or Operation New Dawn in fiscal years 2008-2014 (N = 540,738). The Heckman probit procedure was used to jointly examine predictors of any opioid prescription receipt and long-term opioid utilization (i.e., an episode of 90 days or longer where days-supply covered at least two-thirds of days) in the postdeployment year. Predictors were based on diagnoses and characteristics of opioid prescriptions.
Results: More than one-third of soldiers (34.8%, n = 188,211) had opioid receipt, and among those soldiers, 3.3% had long-term opioid utilization (or 1.1% of the cohort, n = 6,188). The largest magnitude predictors of long-term opioid utilization were receiving a long-acting opioid within the first 30 days of the episode, diagnoses of chronic pain (no specified source), back/neck pain, or peripheral/central nervous system pain, and severe pain score in vital records. Conclusions: Soldiers returning from deployment were more likely to receive an opioid prescription than the overall active duty population, and 1.1% initiated a long-term opioid episode. We report a declining rate of opioid receipt and long-term opioid utilization among Army members from fiscal years 2008-2014. This study demonstrates that the most important predictors of opioid receipt were not demographic factors, but generally clinical indicators of acute pain or physical trauma.