Hidenori Toyoda1, Takashi Kumada1, Toshifumi Tada1, Kazuyuki Mizuno1, Atsushi Hiraoka2, Kunihiko Tsuji3, Toru Ishikawa4, Tomoyuki Akita5, Junko Tanaka5. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Japan. 2. Department of Gastroenterology, Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan. 3. Center for Gastroenterology, Teine Keijinkai Hospital, Sapporo, Japan. 4. Department of Hepatology, Saiseikai Niigata Daini Hospital, Niigata, Japan. 5. Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Surveillance reportedly has benefit on survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after adjustment for lead-time bias. However, previous adjustment for lead-time bias using tumour volume doubling time (TVDT) had inherent problem in accuracy. We evaluated survival benefit of HCC surveillance with newly developed approach for adjusting lead-time bias. In addition, survival benefit was evaluated according to HCC aetiology and liver function. METHODS: A total of 3899 patients were studied. TVDT was calculated in 255 study patients with ≥2 tumour size measurements before the diagnosis of HCC. Adjusted survival time was calculated based on TVDT, as the time from when HCC was assumed to be 5 mm to death or last follow-up. Survival rates based on this adjusted survival time were compared between the surveillance and nonsurveillance groups and categorized by HCC aetiology and liver function. RESULTS: Calculated TVDT varied widely by study patients (median 141.9, IQR, 73.1-261.7 days). Survival rates based on adjusted survival time were higher in the surveillance group overall and by patients HCC aetiology. Whereas adjusted survival rates were higher in the surveillance group in Child-Pugh class A patients, the survival benefit was smaller in Child-Pugh class B patients and not statistically significant in Child-Pugh class C patients. CONCLUSIONS: The survival benefit of surveillance for patients with HCC was demonstrated after adjustment for lead-time bias with novel, more accurate methodology. However, the benefits differed based on liver function and may vary largely by patients because of wide variation in TVDT.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Surveillance reportedly has benefit on survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after adjustment for lead-time bias. However, previous adjustment for lead-time bias using tumour volume doubling time (TVDT) had inherent problem in accuracy. We evaluated survival benefit of HCC surveillance with newly developed approach for adjusting lead-time bias. In addition, survival benefit was evaluated according to HCC aetiology and liver function. METHODS: A total of 3899 patients were studied. TVDT was calculated in 255 study patients with ≥2 tumour size measurements before the diagnosis of HCC. Adjusted survival time was calculated based on TVDT, as the time from when HCC was assumed to be 5 mm to death or last follow-up. Survival rates based on this adjusted survival time were compared between the surveillance and nonsurveillance groups and categorized by HCC aetiology and liver function. RESULTS: Calculated TVDT varied widely by study patients (median 141.9, IQR, 73.1-261.7 days). Survival rates based on adjusted survival time were higher in the surveillance group overall and by patients HCC aetiology. Whereas adjusted survival rates were higher in the surveillance group in Child-Pugh class A patients, the survival benefit was smaller in Child-Pugh class B patients and not statistically significant in Child-Pugh class C patients. CONCLUSIONS: The survival benefit of surveillance for patients with HCC was demonstrated after adjustment for lead-time bias with novel, more accurate methodology. However, the benefits differed based on liver function and may vary largely by patients because of wide variation in TVDT.