An analysis of factors predisposing to chronic graft-versus-host disease.

Among 75 consecutive allogeneic bone marrow transplant recipients, 24 developed chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), which was diagnosed from day 31 to day 368 after transplantation. Eight (33%) patients had more extensive chronic GVHD, and five patients died. The actuarial incidence of chronic GVHD was 48% at 400 days. A number of factors were analyzed for their association with chronic GVHD. Recipients of marrow from donors over 17 years of age had an actuarial incidence of chronic GVHD at 400 days of 74%, compared with 27% if the donors were under 17 years of age (log-rank test on survival curves, p less than 0.001). Other factors that appeared to predispose for chronic GVHD in bivariate analysis were recipient age above 17 years (p less than 0.02), treatment with donor unirradiated buffy-coat cells (p less than 0.01), grade-II-IV acute GVHD (p less than 0.01), and a preceding cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (p less than 0.01). In multi-variate analysis, however, only donor age above 17 years, treatment with donor buffy-coat cells, and grade-II-IV acute GVHD were significantly associated with chronic GVHD. The possible role of CMV infection in the development of chronic GVHD is discussed.