| Literature DB >> 29938084 |
Jason M Farnsworth1, David M Baasch1, Chadwin Smith1, Kevin L Werbylo1.
Abstract
This is a response to the Alexander, Jorgensen, and Bomberger-Brown (Ecology and Evolution, XX, 2018, XX; hereafter, AJB) Letter to the Editor critiquing Farnsworth et al. (Ecology and Evolution, 7, 2017, 3579; hereafter, our study), which investigates the reproductive ecology of interior least terns and piping plover in relation to Platte River hydrology and sandbar dynamics. Herein, we address each of AJBs' technical arguments, demonstrating that our technical approach and model assumptions were reasonable and provide a conservatively high estimate of the potential for reproductive success when compared to observed nest inundation events. We conclude with a description of the realities faced by the Platte River Recovery Implementation Program (PRRIP) as we integrate learning to adjust management actions. Linked Article: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4109.Entities:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29938084 PMCID: PMC6010768 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4097
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
Figure 1Weekly sandbar model results indicating the percent of years when sandbar habitat in the contemporary LPR was inundated along with the period necessary for successful nesting and brood rearing for each species. Bars indicate the percent of years when sandbar habitat was inundated for one or more days during that week. Solid lines represent periods necessary for successful nesting beginning at peak nest initiation dates. Dashed lines represent periods necessary for successful nesting following mid‐June inundation events
Emergent sandbar habitat model results for the LPR Segment including the number of annual habitat inundation events during the nesting period (1 May to 30 August) and total habitat inundation duration in days
| 5th | 25th | Median | 75th | 95th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of inundation events | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Inundation duration (days) | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 34 |
Results of AHR sandbar height analyses during the period of 2010–2015
| 2010 | 2011 | 2014 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event duration (days) | 54 | 98 | 33 | 77 |
| Even volume (millions of cm) | 566 | 1,541 | 261 | 1,594 |
| Peak date at Kearney Gage | 6/17/2010 | 6/25/2011 | 6/14/2014 | 6/18/2015 |
| Mean peak discharge for AHR (m3/s) | 233 | 251 | 190 | 434 |
| Median sandbar height below peak (m) | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.5 | 0.44 |
| Standard deviation of sandbar height below peak (m) | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
Comparisons of observed on‐channel habitat conditions and nesting in the lower Platte River in relation to Farnsworth et al. (2017) emergent sandbar habitat model predictions
| Year | Reported habitat inundation | Model inundation | Piping plover nesting observations | Piping Plover model success window | Least tern nesting observations | Least tern model success window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | High flows on 28 June inundated many sandbars | Bars inundated on 28 June to 2 July | 18 nests, 7 flooded, no hatch or fledge info | No potential | 85 nests, 21 inundated, 0.57 fledglings per pair | 10 days |
| 1990 | Sandbars inundated 14 June to 19 June | Bars inundated 16 June to 20 June and on 26 July | 28 nests flooded, 13 renests, 6 flooded, no hatch or fledge info. | No potential | 94 nests inundated, 93 renests, 0.25 fledglings per pair | No potential |
| 2008 | High flows mid‐May through mid‐June. Bar habitat available after mid‐June | Bars inundated 28 May through 13 June | 3 nests, 1 hatched (July 24). No fledging info. | 10 days | 150 nests, 63 confirmed/likely hatched, no fledging info. | 29 days |
| 2009 | Peak flow 21 June completely inundated many sandbars | No inundation | 47 nests, 14 inundated, 12 confirmed/likely hatched. No fledging info. | Season‐long | 264 nests, 50 inundated, 110 confirmed/likely hatched. No fledging info. | Season‐long |
| 2010 | Large mid‐June peak flow inundated sandbars | Bars inundated 11‐June to 24‐June | 8 nests prior to flooding, none after | No potential | 5 nests prior to flooding, Four colonies after. No fledging info. | 18 days |
| 2011 | Bars inundated in late May and again in late June | No inundation | 10 nests, 7 inundated in May, 3 confirmed/likely hatched. No fledging info. | Season‐long | 98 nests, 56 inundated, 38 confirmed/likely successful. No fledging info. | Season‐long |
| 2012 | No inundation observed | Bars inundated on 30 May | 4 nests, no hatch info. | 24 Days | 74 nests, no hatch info. | 43 days |
| 2013 | Many bars at least partially inundated in late May | Bars inundated 27 May to 12 June. | 11 nests, 4 likely hatched. No fledging info. | No potential | 53 nests, 9 likely hatched. No fledging info. | 15 days |
| 2014 | Bars inundated until mid‐July | Bars inundated intermittently 12 May to 4 July | No nests | No potential | 26 nests, no hatch or fledge info. | 4 days |
| 2015 | Bars inundated May to mid‐July | Bars inundated intermittently 7 May to 3 July | No nests | No potential | 8 nests, no hatch or fledge info. | 9 days |
| 2016 | Majority bars inundated to mid‐June | Bars inundated intermittently 20 April to 22 June | No nests | No potential | 33 nests, no hatch or fledge info. | 5 days |
| 2017 | Most sandbars inundated until early to mid‐June | Bars inundated intermittently 1 May to 27 May | 3 nests. No hatching info. | 18 days | 70 nests, 16 chicks, 13 fledglings | 32 days |
Difference in instantaneous and mean daily discharge and stage in the lower Platte River
| Difference in discharge (m3/s) | Difference in stage (m) | Difference in stage (in) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5th percentile | 58 | 0.04 | 1.69 |
| 25th percentile | 120 | 0.08 | 3.00 |
| Median | 238 | 0.13 | 5.16 |
| 75th percentile | 388 | 0.17 | 6.66 |
| 95th percentile | 924 | 0.37 | 14.58 |