Mapping potential Anopheles gambiae s.l. larval distribution using remotely sensed climatic and environmental variables in Baringo, Kenya.

Anopheles gambiae s.l. (Diptera: Culicidae) is responsible for the transmission of the devastating Plasmodium falciparum (Haemosporida: Plasmodiidae) strain of malaria in Africa. This study investigated the relationship between climate and environmental conditions and An. gambiae s.l. larvae abundance and modelled the larval distribution of this species in Baringo County, Kenya. Mosquito larvae were collected using a 350-mL dipper and a pipette once per month from December 2015 to December 2016. A random forest algorithm was used to generate vegetation cover classes. A negative binomial regression was used to model the association between remotely sensed climate (rainfall and temperature) and environmental (vegetation cover, vegetation health, topographic wetness and slope) factors and An. gambiae s.l. for December 2015. Anopheles gambiae s.l. was significantly more frequent in the riverine zone (P < 0.05, r = 0.59) compared with the lowland zone. Rainfall (b = 6.22, P < 0.001), slope (b = - 4.81, P = 0.012) and vegetation health (b = - 5.60, P = 0.038) significantly influenced the distribution of An. gambiae s.l. larvae. High An. gambiae s.l. abundance was associated with cropland and wetland environments. Effective malaria control will require zone-specific interventions such as a focused dry season vector control strategy in the riverine zone.