Inger R de Ridder1, Simone A Dijkland2, Maaike Scheele1, Heleen M den Hertog3, Maaike Dirks1,4, Willeke F Westendorp5, Paul J Nederkoorn5, Diederik van de Beek5, Gerard M Ribbers6, Ewout W Steyerberg2,7, Hester F Lingsma2, Diederik Wj Dippel1. 1. 1Department of Neurology, Erasmus MC-University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands. 2. 2Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus MC-University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands. 3. Department of Neurology, Medical Spectrum Twente, Enschede, Netherlands. 4. 4Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. 5. 5Department of Neurology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Neuroscience, Amsterdam, Netherlands. 6. 6Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus MC-University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands. 7. Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic score for disability at discharge and functional outcome at three months in patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical information available on admission. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Dutch Stroke Score (DSS) was developed in 1227 patients with ischemic stroke included in the Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke study. Predictors for Barthel Index (BI) at discharge ('DSS-discharge') and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at three months ('DSS-3 months') were identified in multivariable ordinal regression. The models were internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. The DSS-3 months was externally validated in the PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE study (1589 patients) and the Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (2107 patients). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination, expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. RESULTS: At model development, the strongest predictors of Barthel Index at discharge were age per decade over 60 (odds ratio = 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-1.68), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (odds ratio = 1.24 per point, 95% CI 1.22-1.26) and diabetes (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% CI 1.32-1.91). The internally validated AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.79). The DSS-3 months, additionally consisting of previous stroke and atrial fibrillation, performed similarly at internal (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.77) and external validation (AUC 0.74 in PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE (95% CI 0.72-0.76) and 0.69 in Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (95% CI 0.69-0.72)). Observed outcome was slightly better than predicted.Discussion: The DSS had satisfactory performance in predicting BI at discharge and mRS at three months in ischemic stroke patients. CONCLUSION: If further validated, the DSS may contribute to efficient stroke unit discharge planning alongside patients' contextual factors and therapeutic needs.
INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic score for disability at discharge and functional outcome at three months in patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical information available on admission. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Dutch Stroke Score (DSS) was developed in 1227 patients with ischemic stroke included in the Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke study. Predictors for Barthel Index (BI) at discharge ('DSS-discharge') and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at three months ('DSS-3 months') were identified in multivariable ordinal regression. The models were internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. The DSS-3 months was externally validated in the PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE study (1589 patients) and the Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (2107 patients). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination, expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. RESULTS: At model development, the strongest predictors of Barthel Index at discharge were age per decade over 60 (odds ratio = 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-1.68), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (odds ratio = 1.24 per point, 95% CI 1.22-1.26) and diabetes (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% CI 1.32-1.91). The internally validated AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.79). The DSS-3 months, additionally consisting of previous stroke and atrial fibrillation, performed similarly at internal (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.77) and external validation (AUC 0.74 in PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE (95% CI 0.72-0.76) and 0.69 in Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (95% CI 0.69-0.72)). Observed outcome was slightly better than predicted.Discussion: The DSS had satisfactory performance in predicting BI at discharge and mRS at three months in ischemic stroke patients. CONCLUSION: If further validated, the DSS may contribute to efficient stroke unit discharge planning alongside patients' contextual factors and therapeutic needs.
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