Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events: Riding speeds as a risk factor for failure to qualify outcomes (2012-2015).

This study examined the association between riding speed and elimination in Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events. A total of 35,061 horse starts from 1st July 2012 to 31st December 2015 were included in a multivariable logistic regression model containing 25 different risk factors. Riding speeds in individual stages ('loops') were included as individual risk factors in studying the progress of horses through loops 1-3 of each endurance ride. The possibility of real-time, 'mid-ride' predictive modelling was explored by modelling both riding speeds and sudden changes in speed between loops as potential risk factors. Faster riding speeds, especially during loops 1 and 2, were associated with deleterious outcomes. Furthermore, sudden drops in riding speed during loop 3 were associated with an increased likelihood of elimination.