| Literature DB >> 29866063 |
Daniel Seoane-Mato1, Olivier Nuñez2,3, Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea2,3, Beatriz Pérez-Gómez2,3, Marina Pollán2,3, Gonzalo López-Abente2,3, Nuria Aragonés4,5.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is acquiring increasing prominence as a cause of cancer death in the population. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain and evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on these trends.Entities:
Keywords: Age-period-cohort analysis; Change-points; Mortality; Pancreatic cancer; Spain; Time trends; Tobacco smoking
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29866063 PMCID: PMC5987643 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-018-4494-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Cancer ISSN: 1471-2407 Impact factor: 4.430
Fig. 1Pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (2008–2012): AAMR per 100,000 person-years (1976 ESP) by Autonomous Community
Pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1978–2012) by sex, Autonomous Community and calendar perioda
| 1978–82 | 1983–87 | 1988–92 | 1993–97 | 1998–02 | 2003–07 | 2008–12 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | Andalucía | 5.34 | 6.18 | 6.71 | 7.37 | 7.57 | 8.29 | 9.34 |
| Aragón | 5.91 | 7.57 | 9.39 | 8.95 | 9.83 | 10.38 | 11.17 | |
| Asturias | 8.81 | 11.67 | 10.26 | 9.79 | 11.10 | 11.64 | 12.37 | |
| C.Valenciana | 6.33 | 7.84 | 7.71 | 8.45 | 9.33 | 9.04 | 10.60 | |
| Cantabria | 7.88 | 9.49 | 10.78 | 10.74 | 10.33 | 11.79 | 10.81 | |
| Castilla y León | 6.43 | 7.36 | 8.39 | 9.38 | 9.06 | 10.46 | 10.59 | |
| Castilla-la Mancha | 4.86 | 5.96 | 6.78 | 7.18 | 7.74 | 8.68 | 9.26 | |
| Cataluña | 6.91 | 8.34 | 8.95 | 9.67 | 9.44 | 10.07 | 10.79 | |
| Ceuta | 5.14 | 10.31 | 11.69 | 14.56 | 13.21 | 13.66 | 9.54 | |
| Extremadura | 6.18 | 6.86 | 9.18 | 8.86 | 10.50 | 9.80 | 11.36 | |
| Galicia | 5.90 | 8.14 | 8.54 | 9.70 | 10.85 | 10.99 | 11.47 | |
| Islas Baleares | 6.57 | 7.89 | 9.17 | 7.99 | 9.38 | 9.81 | 9.57 | |
| Islas Canarias | 9.26 | 9.30 | 10.77 | 9.66 | 10.38 | 10.55 | 10.21 | |
| La Rioja | 7.77 | 8.01 | 10.43 | 9.67 | 9.08 | 10.46 | 12.17 | |
| Madrid | 5.93 | 5.76 | 7.99 | 7.92 | 9.31 | 9.52 | 9.19 | |
| Melilla | 1.68 | 2.09 | 0.87 | 3.77 | 8.49 | 8.34 | 8.39 | |
| Murcia | 6.16 | 6.33 | 6.48 | 7.73 | 9.06 | 9.66 | 10.21 | |
| Navarra | 6.49 | 8.25 | 9.89 | 10.98 | 11.37 | 10.87 | 11.30 | |
| País Vasco | 7.28 | 8.89 | 9.49 | 10.74 | 10.42 | 10.65 | 10.75 | |
| Spain | 6.33 | 7.49 | 8.31 | 8.81 | 9.32 | 9.77 | 10.32 | |
| Women | Andalucía | 3.41 | 4.11 | 4.37 | 4.75 | 4.72 | 5.02 | 5.97 |
| Aragón | 3.83 | 4.85 | 5.14 | 6.01 | 5.87 | 6.33 | 6.37 | |
| Asturias | 5.27 | 6.51 | 5.80 | 6.02 | 6.03 | 6.71 | 7.26 | |
| C.Valenciana | 3.17 | 4.37 | 4.75 | 5.34 | 5.45 | 6.03 | 6.69 | |
| Cantabria | 4.34 | 5.44 | 6.52 | 8.17 | 5.97 | 7.19 | 7.14 | |
| Castilla y León | 3.57 | 4.61 | 4.74 | 5.35 | 5.69 | 5.77 | 6.81 | |
| Castilla-la Mancha | 3.12 | 3.75 | 4.87 | 4.69 | 4.89 | 5.75 | 6.53 | |
| Cataluña | 3.97 | 4.80 | 5.21 | 5.28 | 5.88 | 6.12 | 6.69 | |
| Ceuta | 6.39 | 7.07 | 7.90 | 6.99 | 8.08 | 6.28 | 4.56 | |
| Extremadura | 4.18 | 4.12 | 4.92 | 5.55 | 5.39 | 6.15 | 6.88 | |
| Galicia | 3.35 | 4.36 | 4.50 | 5.47 | 5.89 | 6.16 | 6.58 | |
| Islas Baleares | 3.52 | 4.44 | 4.95 | 5.77 | 5.58 | 5.98 | 6.01 | |
| Islas Canarias | 3.74 | 5.06 | 6.24 | 6.42 | 6.58 | 6.91 | 6.69 | |
| La Rioja | 4.46 | 5.57 | 5.53 | 5.44 | 6.95 | 6.27 | 6.61 | |
| Madrid | 3.19 | 3.48 | 4.49 | 5.09 | 5.61 | 5.84 | 6.47 | |
| Melilla | 3.45 | 1.25 | 3.63 | 5.18 | 4.28 | 2.97 | 2.46 | |
| Murcia | 4.51 | 3.59 | 4.03 | 5.08 | 4.99 | 5.46 | 6.64 | |
| Navarra | 3.86 | 5.28 | 5.12 | 6.49 | 6.69 | 6.97 | 8.18 | |
| País Vasco | 3.86 | 5.25 | 5.74 | 5.81 | 6.47 | 6.44 | 6.80 | |
| Spain | 3.64 | 4.46 | 4.89 | 5.36 | 5.61 | 5.96 | 6.57 |
aAge-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 person-years (1976 ESP)
Pancreatic cancer mortality trend changes in Spain evaluated using joinpoint analysis by sex and Autonomous Community
| Period 1 | Period 2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | N. of change points | Years | APC 1 | Years | APC 2 | ||
| Men | Andalucía | 2.89a | 1 | 1975-1978 | 17.66 | 1978-2012 | 1.68a |
| Aragón | 1.71a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Asturias | 0.84a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| C. Valenciana | 2.14a | 1 | 1975-1985 | 4.77a | 1985-2012 | 1.19a | |
| Cantabria | 0.84a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Castilla y León | 1.93a | 1 | 1975-1990 | 3.39a | 1990-2012 | 0.95a | |
| Castilla-la Mancha | 2.00a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Cataluña | 1.79a | 1 | 1975-1987 | 3.90a | 1987-2012 | 0.80a | |
| Extremadura | 1.80a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Galicia | 2.82a | 1 | 1975-1985 | 6.93a | 1985-2012 | 1.34a | |
| Islas Baleares | 2.21a | 1 | 1975-1986 | 6.51a | 1986-2012 | 0.45 | |
| Islas Canarias | 2.37 | 1 | 1975-1978 | 29.02 | 1978-2012 | 0.30 | |
| La Rioja | 1.38a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Madrid | 1.62a | 1 | 1975-2001 | 2.50a | 2001-2012 | -0.42 | |
| Murcia | 1.74a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Navarra | 1.39a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| País Vasco | 1.03a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Spain | 1.99a | 1 | 1975-1986 | 4.10a | 1986-2012 | 1.11a | |
| Women | Andalucía | 1.57a | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Aragón | 1.71a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Asturias | 0.94a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| C. Valenciana | 2.78a | 1 | 1975-1984 | 6.48a | 1984-2012 | 1.61a | |
| Cantabria | 2.23a | 1 | 1975-1991 | 5.55a | 1991-2012 | -0.23 | |
| Castilla y León | 1.89a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Castilla-la Mancha | 2.34a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Cataluña | 1.52a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Extremadura | 1.65a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Galicia | 3.70a | 1 | 1975-1977 | 38.72 | 1977-2012 | 1.99a | |
| Islas Baleares | 1.54a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Islas Canarias | 1.76a | 1 | 1975-1992 | 3.64a | 1992-2012 | 0.18 | |
| La Rioja | 0.84 | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Madrid | 2.55a | 1 | 1975-1994 | 3.61a | 1994-2012 | 1.43a | |
| Murcia | 1.65a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Navarra | 2.08a | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| País Vasco | 1.66a | 1 | 1975-1989 | 3.03a | 1989-2012 | 0.84a | |
| Spain | 2.09a | 1 | 1975-1987 | 3.56a | 1987-2012 | 1.39a | |
APC Annual Percentage of Change
aStatistically significant trend as obtained from the segmented regression. Statistical tests were two sided. The significance level was considered as 0.05
Fig. 2Pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain (1975–2012), by sex and Autonomous Community. Age-adjusted smoothed mortality rates per 100,000 person-years (1976 ESP)
Fig. 3AAMR per 100,000 person-years for pancreatic cancer by birth cohort and sex, Spain (1952–2012)
Goodness of fit in age, period and cohort models for pancreatic cancer mortality by sex, Spain (1952–2012)
| Degrees of freedom | Deviance | % of change in deviance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men | |||
| Age | 121 | 9980 | – |
| Age + drift | 120 | 1382 | Reference |
| Age + period | 110 | 354 | 74.4% |
| Age + cohort | 100 | 509 | 63.2% |
| Age + period + cohort | 90 | 109 | 92.1% |
| Women | |||
| Age | 121 | 6094 | – |
| Age + drift | 120 | 694 | Reference |
| Age + period | 110 | 327 | 52.9% |
| Age + cohort | 100 | 153 | 78.0% |
| Age + period + cohort | 90 | 82 | 88.2% |
Fig. 4Cohort and period effects on pancreatic cancer mortality by sex, Spain (1952–2012). Cohort and period effects (thick lines), curvature (thin lines) and change points in the curvatures (vertical grey lines)
Cohort and period effect curvature change-points on pancreatic cancer mortality by sex, Spain (1952–2012)
| Changes in cohort effecta | ||
| Birth year | Birth year | |
| Men | 1904.6 (1898.7–1910.5) | 1960.6 (1958.9–1962.3) |
| Women | 1894.4 (1890.9–1897.8) | 1971.2 (1968.9–1973.6) |
| Changes in period effectb | ||
| Year of death | Year of death | |
| Men | 1963.5 (1961.7–1965.2) | 1987.83 (1985.52–1990.14) |
| Women | 1964.0 (1957.1–1970.9) | |
aYear of birth with significant trend change as obtained from the segmented regression analysis of cohort curvatures from the three-factor model
bYear of death with significant trend change as obtained from the segmented regression analysis of period curvatures from the three-factor model