Linda Ryen1,2, Carl Bonander3, Mikael Svensson2,4. 1. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad, Sweden. 2. Health Metrics, The Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. 3. Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, Karlstad University, Sweden. 4. Department of Economics, Williams College, US.
Abstract
Background: Worldwide, about 5.8 million people die each year due to injuries. In Sweden, the corresponding number amounts to 3000. There are large differences among injury types regarding the age-profile of the fatalities and as most of them occur in older age groups, counting the absolute number of injury fatalities does not fully reflect the size of the burden of injury. Methods: Using age- and sex-specific life expectancy tables in combination with data on external causes of injury, the number of injury fatalities in Sweden for the time period 1972-2014 is converted to a sum of potential years of life lost (PYLL). We then fit cause and group-specific spline regression models to the data to estimate temporal trends in both fatality counts and PYLL. Results: There has been a steady reduction in the number of injury fatalities and in the sum of PYLL from the early 1970s to around the year 2000. Since then, there has been an increase in the number of injury fatalities and in the sum of PYLL. The upward trend is mainly explained by an increasing number of deaths due to poisonings and suicide, specifically among younger men. Conclusions: The increases in suicide and poisoning mortality offset the reductions in downward trending causes of injury mortality during the last decades. The share of PYLL is larger than the share of fatalities for both suicides and poisonings implying that an aging population does not cause the increase.
Background: Worldwide, about 5.8 million people die each year due to injuries. In Sweden, the corresponding number amounts to 3000. There are large differences among injury types regarding the age-profile of the fatalities and as most of them occur in older age groups, counting the absolute number of injury fatalities does not fully reflect the size of the burden of injury. Methods: Using age- and sex-specific life expectancy tables in combination with data on external causes of injury, the number of injury fatalities in Sweden for the time period 1972-2014 is converted to a sum of potential years of life lost (PYLL). We then fit cause and group-specific spline regression models to the data to estimate temporal trends in both fatality counts and PYLL. Results: There has been a steady reduction in the number of injury fatalities and in the sum of PYLL from the early 1970s to around the year 2000. Since then, there has been an increase in the number of injury fatalities and in the sum of PYLL. The upward trend is mainly explained by an increasing number of deaths due to poisonings and suicide, specifically among younger men. Conclusions: The increases in suicide and poisoning mortality offset the reductions in downward trending causes of injury mortality during the last decades. The share of PYLL is larger than the share of fatalities for both suicides and poisonings implying that an aging population does not cause the increase.