Modelling of enterobacterial loads to the Baie des Veys (Normandy, France).

The Baie des Veys (Normandy, France) has abundant stocks of shellfish (oyster and cockle farms). Water quality in the bay is affected by pollutant inputs from a 3500 km2 watershed and notably occasional episodes of contamination by faecal coliforms. In order to characterise enterobacterial loads and develop a plan of action to improve the quality of seawater and shellfish in the bay, a two-stage modelling procedure was adopted. This focused on Escherichia coli and included a catchment model describing the E. coli releases, and the transport and die-off of this bacteria up to the coast. The output from this model then served as input for a marine model used to determine the concentration of E. coli in seawater. A total 60 scenarios were tested, including different wind, tidal, rainfall and temperature conditions and accidental pollution events, for both current situations and future scenarios. The modelling results highlighted the impact of rainfall on E. coli loadings to the sea, as well as the effects of sluice gates and tidal cycles, which dictated the use of an hourly timescale for the modelling process. The coupled models also made it possible to identify the origin of these enterobacteria as found in shellfish harvesting areas, both in terms of the contributing watercourses and the sources of contamination of those watercourses. The tool can accordingly be used to optimise remedial action.