Anton Barchuk1, Alexander Bespalov2, Heini Huhtala3, Tuvshinjargal Chimed4, Irina Laricheva5, Alexey Belyaev6, Freddie Bray7, Ahti Anttila8, Anssi Auvinen9. 1. University of Tampere, Faculty of Social Sciences, Epidemiology Group, Arvo, Arvo Ylpön katu 34, 33520 Tampere, Finland; Petrov National Research Medical Center of Oncology, Leningradskaya 68, Pesochny, Saint-Petersburg, 197758, Russia. Electronic address: anton.barchuk@uta.fi. 2. Petrov National Research Medical Center of Oncology, Leningradskaya 68, Pesochny, Saint-Petersburg, 197758, Russia. Electronic address: magisterbes@gmail.com. 3. University of Tampere, Faculty of Social Sciences, Biostatistics Group, Arvo, Arvo Ylpön katu 34, 33520 Tampere, Finland. Electronic address: heini.huhtala@uta.fi. 4. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, 150, Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, Cedex 08, 69372, France. 5. Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Department of IT Systems, Dobrolubova 11, Moscow, 127254, Russia. Electronic address: laricheva@mednet.ru. 6. Petrov National Research Medical Center of Oncology, Leningradskaya 68, Pesochny, Saint-Petersburg, 197758, Russia. Electronic address: oncl@rion.spb.ru. 7. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, 150, Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, Cedex 08, 69372, France. Electronic address: brayf@iarc.fr. 8. Finnish Cancer Registry, Mass Screening Registry, Unioninkatu 22, Helsinki, 00130, Finland. Electronic address: ahti.anttila@cancer.fi. 9. University of Tampere, Faculty of Social Sciences, Epidemiology Group, Arvo, Arvo Ylpön katu 34, 33520 Tampere, Finland. Electronic address: anssi.auvinen@uta.fi.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Breast and cervical cancer are among the leading causes of preventable cancer deaths in women in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends using data from the Russian State Cancer Registry. METHODS: The age-standardized rates of cervical cancer incidence (1993-2013) and mortality (1980-2013) were analyzed using piecewise linear regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the temporal effects and provide future predictions. RESULTS: Breast and cervical cancer incidence rates uniformly increased over two decades from 33.0 to 47.0 per 100,000 and from 10.6 to 14.2 per 100,000, respectively. Breast cancer mortality rates however declined from 17.6 to 15.7 in 2013, while cervical cancer mortality increased steadily from 5.6 to 6.7. Breakpoints in the risk occurred in cohorts born 1937-1953, indicating a recent generational decrease in breast cancer mortality, but a concomitant increase in cervical cancer. Cervical cancer has already surpassed breast cancer in terms of years of life lost (YLL) (23.4 per death vs 18.5 in 2009-2013), while future projections suggest that the annual YLL could reach 1.2 million for cervical cancer and (decline to) 1.8 million for breast cancer by the year 2030. CONCLUSION: The temporal patterns of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Russia are in line with other countries in Europe, although cervical cancer rates and the risk of occurrence in recent generations is rapidly increasing; these trends underscore the need to place immediate priority in national cervical vaccination and screening programs.
BACKGROUND:Breast and cervical cancer are among the leading causes of preventable cancer deaths in women in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends using data from the Russian State Cancer Registry. METHODS: The age-standardized rates of cervical cancer incidence (1993-2013) and mortality (1980-2013) were analyzed using piecewise linear regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the temporal effects and provide future predictions. RESULTS:Breast and cervical cancer incidence rates uniformly increased over two decades from 33.0 to 47.0 per 100,000 and from 10.6 to 14.2 per 100,000, respectively. Breast cancer mortality rates however declined from 17.6 to 15.7 in 2013, while cervical cancer mortality increased steadily from 5.6 to 6.7. Breakpoints in the risk occurred in cohorts born 1937-1953, indicating a recent generational decrease in breast cancer mortality, but a concomitant increase in cervical cancer. Cervical cancer has already surpassed breast cancer in terms of years of life lost (YLL) (23.4 per death vs 18.5 in 2009-2013), while future projections suggest that the annual YLL could reach 1.2 million for cervical cancer and (decline to) 1.8 million for breast cancer by the year 2030. CONCLUSION: The temporal patterns of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Russia are in line with other countries in Europe, although cervical cancer rates and the risk of occurrence in recent generations is rapidly increasing; these trends underscore the need to place immediate priority in national cervical vaccination and screening programs.
Authors: Juliana Dantas de Araújo Santos Camargo; Juliano Dos Santos; Taynãna César Simões; Jovanka Bittencourt Leite de Carvalho; Glauber Weder Dos Santos Silva; Eder Samuel Oliveira Dantas; Weverton Thiago da Silva Rodrigues; Flávio Henrique Miranda de Araújo Freire; Karina Cardoso Meira Journal: PLoS One Date: 2021-08-13 Impact factor: 3.240