Clinical and Pathologic Factors Predicting Future Asthma in Wheezing Children. A Longitudinal Study.

Wheeze is a common symptom in infants, but not all wheezers develop asthma. Indeed, up to 50% of wheezing children outgrow their symptoms by school age. How to predict if early wheeze will become asthma is still a matter of vivid debate. In this work, we sought to assess the clinical and pathological factors that might predict the future development of asthma in children. Eighty children (mean age 3.8 ± 1 yr) who underwent a clinically indicated bronchoscopy were followed prospectively for a median of 5 years. At baseline, clinical characteristics with a particular focus on wheezing and its presentation (episodic or multitrigger) were collected, and structural and inflammatory changes were quantified in bronchial biopsies. Follow-up data were available for 74 of the 80 children. Children who presented with multitrigger wheeze were more likely to have asthma at follow-up than those with episodic wheeze (P = 0.04) or without wheeze (P < 0.0001). Children with asthma also had lower birth weights (P = 0.02), a lower prevalence of breastfeeding (P = 0.02), and a trend for increased IgE (P = 0.07) at baseline than those with no asthma. Basement membrane thickness and airway eosinophils at baseline were increased in children who developed asthma at follow-up (P = 0.001 and P = 0.026, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that among all clinical and pathological factors, multitrigger wheezing, basement membrane thickening, and reduced birth weight were predictive of future asthma development. We conclude that multitrigger wheeze and reduced birth weight are clinical predictors of asthma development. Basement membrane thickening in early childhood is closely associated with asthma development, highlighting the importance of airway remodeling in early life as a risk factor for future asthma.