Xue Li1, Xuezhen Ge1, Linghong Chen2, Linjing Zhang1, Tao Wang3, Shixiang Zong1. 1. Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, P.R. China. 2. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun, P.R. China. 3. Mentougou Forestry Station, Beijing, P.R. China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in north-western China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. RESULTS: Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N-51° N and 74° E-134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N-53° N and 74° E-134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. CONCLUSION: These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks.
BACKGROUND:Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in north-western China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. RESULTS: Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N-51° N and 74° E-134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N-53° N and 74° E-134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. CONCLUSION: These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks.