Controlling Guessing Bias in the Dichotomous Rasch Model Applied to a Large-Scale, Vertically Scaled Testing Program.

Recent research has shown how the statistical bias in Rasch model difficulty estimates induced by guessing in multiple-choice items can be eliminated. Using vertical scaling of a high-profile national reading test, it is shown that the dominant effect of removing such bias is a nonlinear change in the unit of scale across the continuum. The consequence is that the proficiencies of the more proficient students are increased relative to those of the less proficient. Not controlling the guessing bias underestimates the progress of students across 7 years of schooling with important educational implications.