F D Martos-Benítez1, I Cordero-Escobar2, A Soto-García3, I Betancourt-Plaza4, I González-Martínez4. 1. Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos 8B, Hospital "Hermanos Ameijeiras", La Habana, Cuba. Electronic address: fdmartos@infomed.sld.cu. 2. Departamento de Anestesiología, Hospital "Hermanos Ameijeiras", La Habana, Cuba. 3. Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos Oncológicos, Instituto de Oncología y Radiobiología, La Habana, Cuba. 4. Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos, Hospital Docente "Dr. Miguel Enríquez", La Habana, Cuba.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To improve the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cancer patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 522 patients admitted to ICU with a solid tumor. We developed the "APACHE II score for critically ill patients with a solid tumor" (APACHE IICCP score), in which typical variables of critically ill cancer patients were added to general APACHE II score. Calibration and discrimination were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (H-L) and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC), respectively. The improvement in predicting hospital mortality with the new model was assessed using a reclassification analysis by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI; cut-off point of 20% in risk of death) and quantitative NRI (qNRI). RESULTS: The hospital mortality rate was 13%. Discrimination was superior for APACHE IICCP score (AROC=0.91 [95% CI 0.87-0.94; P<.0001]) compared to general APACHE II score (AROC=0.62 [95% CI 0.54-0.70; P=.002]). Calibration was better using APACHE IICCP score (H-L; P=.267 vs. P=.001). In reclassification analysis, an improved mortality prediction was observed with APACHE IICCP score (IDI=0.2994 [P<.0001]; total qNRI=134.3% [95% CI 108.8-159.8%; P<.0001]; total NRI=41.5% [95% CI 23.7-59.3%; P<.0001]). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of APACHE IICCP score was superior to that observed for general APACHE II score in predicting mortality in critically ill patients with a solid tumor. Other studies validating this new predictive model are required.
OBJECTIVE: To improve the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cancerpatients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 522 patients admitted to ICU with a solid tumor. We developed the "APACHE II score for critically illpatients with a solid tumor" (APACHE IICCP score), in which typical variables of critically ill cancerpatients were added to general APACHE II score. Calibration and discrimination were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (H-L) and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC), respectively. The improvement in predicting hospital mortality with the new model was assessed using a reclassification analysis by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI; cut-off point of 20% in risk of death) and quantitative NRI (qNRI). RESULTS: The hospital mortality rate was 13%. Discrimination was superior for APACHE IICCP score (AROC=0.91 [95% CI 0.87-0.94; P<.0001]) compared to general APACHE II score (AROC=0.62 [95% CI 0.54-0.70; P=.002]). Calibration was better using APACHE IICCP score (H-L; P=.267 vs. P=.001). In reclassification analysis, an improved mortality prediction was observed with APACHE IICCP score (IDI=0.2994 [P<.0001]; total qNRI=134.3% [95% CI 108.8-159.8%; P<.0001]; total NRI=41.5% [95% CI 23.7-59.3%; P<.0001]). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of APACHE IICCP score was superior to that observed for general APACHE II score in predicting mortality in critically illpatients with a solid tumor. Other studies validating this new predictive model are required.