M Trubnikov1, P Yan1, C Archibald1. 1. Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prevalence estimates contribute to our understanding of the magnitude of a particular health condition and in planning appropriate public health interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, anti-HCV-positive status (anti-HCV) and the proportion of undiagnosed HCV infections in Canada. METHODS: A combination of back-calculation and workbook methods was used. The back-calculation method estimated prevalent chronic HCV infection and the proportion undiagnosed using the Canadian Cancer Registry's data on hepatocellular carcinoma reported between 1992 and 2008 and the Canadian Notifiable Disease Surveillance System's data on Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cases reported between 1991 and 2009 in a Markov multi-state disease progression model with parameters adjusted to Canada. The workbook method divided the total population of Canada into population subsets and developed estimates of population size and anti-HCV prevalence for each. Sub-population size estimates were multiplied by anti-HCV prevalence measures to calculate the prevalence of anti-HCV by sub-population. A measure of spontaneous clearance was used to estimate the number of persons with chronic HCV from estimates of the number of anti-HCV-positive persons. RESULTS: The back-calculation method estimated the prevalence of chronic HCV infection at 0.64% and the proportion of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection at 44% in 2011. The workbook method estimated the anti-HCV prevalence at 0.96% (plausibility range: 0.61% to 1.34%) and chronic HCV infection at 0.71% (0.45 - 0.99%). INTERPRETATION: By combining mid-point estimates from both methods, it is estimated that between 0.64% to 0.71% of the overall Canadian population was living with chronic HCV infection in 2011 and 44% of these individuals were undiagnosed.
BACKGROUND: Prevalence estimates contribute to our understanding of the magnitude of a particular health condition and in planning appropriate public health interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, anti-HCV-positive status (anti-HCV) and the proportion of undiagnosed HCV infections in Canada. METHODS: A combination of back-calculation and workbook methods was used. The back-calculation method estimated prevalent chronic HCV infection and the proportion undiagnosed using the Canadian Cancer Registry's data on hepatocellular carcinoma reported between 1992 and 2008 and the Canadian Notifiable Disease Surveillance System's data on Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cases reported between 1991 and 2009 in a Markov multi-state disease progression model with parameters adjusted to Canada. The workbook method divided the total population of Canada into population subsets and developed estimates of population size and anti-HCV prevalence for each. Sub-population size estimates were multiplied by anti-HCV prevalence measures to calculate the prevalence of anti-HCV by sub-population. A measure of spontaneous clearance was used to estimate the number of persons with chronic HCV from estimates of the number of anti-HCV-positive persons. RESULTS: The back-calculation method estimated the prevalence of chronic HCV infection at 0.64% and the proportion of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection at 44% in 2011. The workbook method estimated the anti-HCV prevalence at 0.96% (plausibility range: 0.61% to 1.34%) and chronic HCV infection at 0.71% (0.45 - 0.99%). INTERPRETATION: By combining mid-point estimates from both methods, it is estimated that between 0.64% to 0.71% of the overall Canadian population was living with chronic HCV infection in 2011 and 44% of these individuals were undiagnosed.
Authors: Conar R O'Neil; Emily Buss; Sabrina Plitt; Mariam Osman; Carla S Coffin; Carmen L Charlton; Stephen Shafran Journal: Can J Public Health Date: 2019-06-20