Longitudinal Patterns of Physical Activity Among Older Adults: A Latent Transition Analysis.

Most epidemiologic studies of physical activity measure either total energy expenditure or engagement in a single type of activity, such as walking. These approaches may gloss over important nuances in activity patterns. We performed a latent transition analysis to identify patterns of activity, as well as neighborhood and individual determinants of changes in those activity patterns, over 2 years in a cohort of 2,023 older adult residents of New York, New York, surveyed between 2011 and 2013. We identified 7 latent classes: 1) mostly inactive, 2) walking, 3) exercise, 4) household activities and walking, 5) household activities and exercise, 6) gardening and household activities, and 7) gardening, household activities, and exercise. The majority of subjects retained the same activity patterns between waves (54% unchanged between waves 1 and 2, 66% unchanged between waves 2 and 3). Most latent class transitions were between classes distinguished only by 1 form of activity, and only neighborhood unemployment was consistently associated with changing between activity latent classes. Future latent transition analyses of physical activity would benefit from larger cohorts and longer follow-up periods to assess predictors of and long-term impacts of changes in activity patterns.