F de'Donato1, M Scortichini2, M De Sario2, A de Martino3, P Michelozzi2. 1. Environmental Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL Roma 1, Via Cristoforo Colombo, 112, 00147 Rome, Italy. Electronic address: f.dedonato@deplazio.it. 2. Environmental Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL Roma 1, Via Cristoforo Colombo, 112, 00147 Rome, Italy. 3. Ministry of Health, General Directorate for Health Prevention, Viale Giorgio Ribotta, 5, 00144 Rome, Italy.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. STUDY DESIGN: Time series analysis. METHODS: Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. RESULTS: Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. CONCLUSIONS: Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans.
OBJECTIVES: The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. STUDY DESIGN: Time series analysis. METHODS: Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. RESULTS: Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. CONCLUSIONS: Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans.
Authors: Seulkee Heo; Amruta Nori-Sarma; Kwonsang Lee; Tarik Benmarhnia; Francesca Dominici; Michelle L Bell Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2019-06-25 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Kirsten Vanderplanken; Peter van den Hazel; Michael Marx; Ahmad Zia Shams; Debarati Guha-Sapir; Joris Adriaan Frank van Loenhout Journal: Health Res Policy Syst Date: 2021-02-15
Authors: Yao Wu; Bo Wen; Shanshan Li; Antonio Gasparrini; Shilu Tong; Ala Overcenco; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Alireza Entezari; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Antonella Zanobetti; Antonis Analitis; Ariana Zeka; Aurelio Tobias; Barrak Alahmad; Ben Armstrong; Bertil Forsberg; Carmen Íñiguez; Caroline Ameling; César De la Cruz Valencia; Christofer Åström; Danny Houthuijs; Do Van Dung; Dominic Royé; Ene Indermitte; Eric Lavigne; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Fiorella Acquaotta; Francesca de'Donato; Francesco Sera; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Haidong Kan; Hans Orru; Ho Kim; Iulian-Horia Holobaca; Jan Kyselý; Joana Madureira; Joel Schwartz; Klea Katsouyanni; Magali Hurtado-Diaz; Martina S Ragettli; Masahiro Hashizume; Mathilde Pascal; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho; Noah Scovronick; Paola Michelozzi; Patrick Goodman; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Rosana Abrutzky; Samuel Osorio; Tran Ngoc Dang; Valentina Colistro; Veronika Huber; Whanhee Lee; Xerxes Seposo; Yasushi Honda; Michelle L Bell; Yuming Guo Journal: Innovation (Camb) Date: 2022-03-11