Factors associated with child protection recurrence in Australia.

The aim of the current research was to advance understanding of child protection in Australia by examining the factors associated with recurrence of child protection notifications to the formal child protection system. Extant research has been primarily undertaken in the USA and it is important to understand whether similar factors associated with recurrence actually hold in the Australian context. Administrative data were obtained for a sample of 9608 children first subject to a screened-in report in 2011-12. Children were followed for 12 months. Cox Proportional Hazard models were used to measure associations between 26 independent variables and four types of recurrence: subsequent reports, subsequent investigations, subsequent substantiations, and subsequent intervention. Factors associated with recurrence in Australia were broadly similar to those identified in other jurisdictions, including reports and substantiation for neglect, younger age, prior child protection involvement in the household, and parental characteristics including drug use, mental health problems, and history of maltreatment as a child. As in previous studies, post-investigative service provision was positively associated with recurrence. In prior US research, race did not predict recurrence. However, in the present study, Indigenous Australian children were significantly more likely to be subject to all types of recurrence measured. Future research on recurrence should aim to disentangle the complex relationships between child protection recurrence, child maltreatment, and service delivery. Recurrence is not a good proxy indicator of child safety. The findings have implications for the equity of recurrence-based risk assessment tools as they are applied to indigenous populations.