Therese M-L Andersson1, Gerda Engholm2, Eero Pukkala3, Magnus Stenbeck4, Laufey Tryggvadottir5, Hans Storm6, Elisabete Weiderpass7. 1. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: therese.m-l.andersson@ki.se. 2. Department of Documentation & Quality, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Finnish Cancer Registry - Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland. 4. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Division of Insurance Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. 5. Icelandic Cancer Registry, Icelandic Cancer Society, Reykjavik, Iceland; Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland. 6. Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 7. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is an important and preventable cause of cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to alcohol and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in alcohol consumption. METHODS: Using the Prevent macro-simulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045) was modelled for six sites, under different scenarios of changing alcohol consumption, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant alcohol consumption prevailed. The studied sites were colorectal, post-menopausal breast, oral cavity and pharynx, liver, larynx as well as oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The alcohol consumption was based on the categories of non-drinkers/occasional drinkers, light drinkers (<=12.5 g alcohol per day), moderate drinkers (>12.5 and ≤ 50 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>50 g/day). RESULTS: About 83,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period if alcohol consumption was entirely eliminated, which is 5.5% of the expected number of cases for the six alcohol-related cancer types. With a 50% reduction in the proportion with moderate alcohol consumption by year 2025, 21,500 cancer cases could be avoided. The number of avoidable cases was highest for post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancer, but the percentage was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. CONCLUSION: The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the alcohol consumption in the Nordic countries.
BACKGROUND:Alcohol consumption is an important and preventable cause of cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to alcohol and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in alcohol consumption. METHODS: Using the Prevent macro-simulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045) was modelled for six sites, under different scenarios of changing alcohol consumption, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant alcohol consumption prevailed. The studied sites were colorectal, post-menopausal breast, oral cavity and pharynx, liver, larynx as well as oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The alcohol consumption was based on the categories of non-drinkers/occasional drinkers, light drinkers (<=12.5 g alcohol per day), moderate drinkers (>12.5 and ≤ 50 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>50 g/day). RESULTS: About 83,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period if alcohol consumption was entirely eliminated, which is 5.5% of the expected number of cases for the six alcohol-related cancer types. With a 50% reduction in the proportion with moderate alcohol consumption by year 2025, 21,500 cancer cases could be avoided. The number of avoidable cases was highest for post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancer, but the percentage was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. CONCLUSION: The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the alcohol consumption in the Nordic countries.
Authors: Esther de Vries; Miguel Zamir Torres; Martha Patricia Rojas; Gustavo Díaz; Oscar Fernando Herrán Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-10-28 Impact factor: 2.692