Evaluating indirect and direct effects of eco-restoration policy on soil conservation service in Yangtze River Basin.

The conservation impacts of policies that promote large-scale ecological restoration of ecosystem services and socio-economic development are well documented around the world. However, the effect of socio-economic development resulting from such policies on ecosystem services is rarely analysed, although it is important to do so if these policies are to be sustainable. We analysed the socio-economic impacts of soil conservation services from 2000 to 2015 in the Yangtze River Basin under the Grain to Green Programme (GTGP). Also we assessed the driving forces behind the programme: conservation policies, urbanization, agricultural development, and population growth. Our results show that during 2000-2015, cultivated area decreased by 7.5%, urban area increased by 67.5%, forest area increased by 2.1%, and soil erosion was reduced by 19.5%. The programme not only contributed significantly to an improvement in soil conservation services but also enhanced them significantly through faster urbanization. Furthermore, vegetation cover and crop yields increased synergistically, mainly due to high-efficiency agriculture that reduced the negative effect of the GTGP on agricultural production. Overall determining the indirect and direct effects of the GTGP on soil conservation and agricultural production are important for furthering our understanding of the long-term effects of ecological restoration policies, and the present study offers practical insights for ecological restoration of other watersheds.