Morgana Mongraw-Chaffin1, Meredith C Foster2, Cheryl A M Anderson3, Gregory L Burke4, Nowreen Haq5, Rita R Kalyani6, Pamela Ouyang6, Christopher T Sibley7, Russell Tracy8, Mark Woodward9, Dhananjay Vaidya10. 1. Department of Epidemiology & Prevention, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Electronic address: mmongraw@wakehealth.edu. 2. Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore. 3. Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, California; Department of Medicine, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, California; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. 4. Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina. 5. New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York. 6. Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. 7. Great Point Health, Portland, Oregon. 8. Departments of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and Biochemistry, Larner College of Medicine at the University of Vermont, Colchester, Vermont. 9. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland; The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Australia. 10. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Debate over the cardiometabolic risk associated with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) continues. Many studies have investigated this relationship by examining MHO at baseline with longitudinal follow-up, with inconsistent results. OBJECTIVES: The authors hypothesized that MHO at baseline is transient and that transition to metabolic syndrome (MetS) and duration of MetS explains heterogeneity in incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Among 6,809 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) the authors used Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models to investigate the joint association of obesity (≥30 kg/m2) and MetS (International Diabetes Federation consensus definition) with CVD and mortality across a median of 12.2 years. We tested for interaction and conducted sensitivity analyses for a number of conditions. RESULTS: Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight, baseline MHO was not significantly associated with incident CVD; however, almost one-half of those participants developed MetS during follow-up (unstable MHO). Those who had unstable MHO had increased odds of CVD (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 2.25), compared with those with stable MHO or healthy normal weight. Dose response for duration of MetS was significantly and linearly associated with CVD (1 visit with MetS OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.27 to 2.07; 2 visits, OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.49; 3+ visits, OR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.89 to 2.87; p value for trend <0.001) and MetS mediated approximately 62% (44% to 100%) of the relationship between obesity at any point during follow-up and CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolically healthy obesity is not a stable or reliable indicator of future risk for CVD. Weight loss and lifestyle management for CVD risk factors should be recommended to all individuals with obesity.
BACKGROUND: Debate over the cardiometabolic risk associated with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) continues. Many studies have investigated this relationship by examining MHO at baseline with longitudinal follow-up, with inconsistent results. OBJECTIVES: The authors hypothesized that MHO at baseline is transient and that transition to metabolic syndrome (MetS) and duration of MetS explains heterogeneity in incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Among 6,809 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) the authors used Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models to investigate the joint association of obesity (≥30 kg/m2) and MetS (International Diabetes Federation consensus definition) with CVD and mortality across a median of 12.2 years. We tested for interaction and conducted sensitivity analyses for a number of conditions. RESULTS: Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight, baseline MHO was not significantly associated with incident CVD; however, almost one-half of those participants developed MetS during follow-up (unstable MHO). Those who had unstable MHO had increased odds of CVD (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 2.25), compared with those with stable MHO or healthy normal weight. Dose response for duration of MetS was significantly and linearly associated with CVD (1 visit with MetS OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.27 to 2.07; 2 visits, OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.49; 3+ visits, OR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.89 to 2.87; p value for trend <0.001) and MetS mediated approximately 62% (44% to 100%) of the relationship between obesity at any point during follow-up and CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolically healthy obesity is not a stable or reliable indicator of future risk for CVD. Weight loss and lifestyle management for CVD risk factors should be recommended to all individuals with obesity.
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