Andrew Page1, Jo-An Atkinson2, William Campos3, Mark Heffernan4, Shahana Ferdousi3, Adrian Power3, Geoff McDonnell2, Nereus Maranan5, Ian Hickie6. 1. 1 Translational Health Research Institute, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia. 2. 2 The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, The Sax Institute, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. 3. 3 WentWest, Western Sydney Primary Health Network, Blacktown, NSW, Australia. 4. 4 Dynamic Operations, Mona Vale, NSW, Australia. 5. 5 Health Services Planning & Development, Western Sydney Local Health District, Wentworthville, NSW, Australia. 6. 6 Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study describes the development of a decision support tool to identify the combination of suicide prevention activities and service priorities likely to deliver the greatest reductions in suicidal behaviour in Western Sydney (Australia) over the period 2018-2028. METHODS: A dynamic simulation model for the WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network population-catchment was developed in partnership with primary health network stakeholders based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour, and which represented the current incidence of suicide and attempted suicide in Western Sydney. A series of scenarios relating to potential suicide prevention activities and service priorities identified by primary health network stakeholders were investigated to identify the combination of interventions associated with the largest reductions in the forecast number of attempted suicide and suicide cases for a 10-year follow-up period. RESULTS: The largest number of cases averted for both suicide and attempted suicide was associated with (1) post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare (6.1% for both attempted suicide and suicide), (2) improved community support and reductions in psychological distress in the community (5.1% for attempted suicide and 14.8% for suicide), and (3) reductions in the proportion of those lost to services following a mental health service contact (10.5% for both attempted suicide and suicide). In combination, these interventions were forecast to avert approximately 29.7% of attempted suicides and 37.1% of suicides in the primary health network catchment over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the utility of dynamic simulation models, co-designed with multi-disciplinary stakeholder groups, to capture and analyse complex mental health and suicide prevention regional planning problems. The model can be used by WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network as a decision support tool to guide the commissioning of future service activity, and more efficiently frame the monitoring and evaluation of interventions as they are implemented in Western Sydney.
OBJECTIVES: This study describes the development of a decision support tool to identify the combination of suicide prevention activities and service priorities likely to deliver the greatest reductions in suicidal behaviour in Western Sydney (Australia) over the period 2018-2028. METHODS: A dynamic simulation model for the WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network population-catchment was developed in partnership with primary health network stakeholders based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour, and which represented the current incidence of suicide and attempted suicide in Western Sydney. A series of scenarios relating to potential suicide prevention activities and service priorities identified by primary health network stakeholders were investigated to identify the combination of interventions associated with the largest reductions in the forecast number of attempted suicide and suicide cases for a 10-year follow-up period. RESULTS: The largest number of cases averted for both suicide and attempted suicide was associated with (1) post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare (6.1% for both attempted suicide and suicide), (2) improved community support and reductions in psychological distress in the community (5.1% for attempted suicide and 14.8% for suicide), and (3) reductions in the proportion of those lost to services following a mental health service contact (10.5% for both attempted suicide and suicide). In combination, these interventions were forecast to avert approximately 29.7% of attempted suicides and 37.1% of suicides in the primary health network catchment over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the utility of dynamic simulation models, co-designed with multi-disciplinary stakeholder groups, to capture and analyse complex mental health and suicide prevention regional planning problems. The model can be used by WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network as a decision support tool to guide the commissioning of future service activity, and more efficiently frame the monitoring and evaluation of interventions as they are implemented in Western Sydney.
Authors: Grace Yeeun Lee; Ian Bernard Hickie; Jo-An Occhipinti; Yun Ju Christine Song; Adam Skinner; Salvador Camacho; Kenny Lawson; Adriane Martin Hilber; Louise Freebairn Journal: PLoS One Date: 2022-04-22 Impact factor: 3.752
Authors: Jo-An Atkinson; Yun Ju Christine Song; Kathleen R Merikangas; Adam Skinner; Ante Prodan; Frank Iorfino; Louise Freebairn; Danya Rose; Nicholas Ho; Jacob Crouse; Vadim Zipunnikov; Ian B Hickie Journal: Front Psychiatry Date: 2020-11-25 Impact factor: 4.157
Authors: Jo-An Occhipinti; Danya Rose; Adam Skinner; Daniel Rock; Yun Ju C Song; Ante Prodan; Sebastian Rosenberg; Louise Freebairn; Catherine Vacher; Ian B Hickie Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-01-27 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Louise Freebairn; Jo-An Occhipinti; Yun Ju C Song; Adam Skinner; Kenny Lawson; Grace Yeeun Lee; Samuel J Hockey; Samantha Huntley; Ian B Hickie Journal: JMIR Res Protoc Date: 2022-02-07