Marc D Rudolph1, Alice M Graham1, Eric Feczko1,2, Oscar Miranda-Dominguez1, Jerod M Rasmussen3, Rahel Nardos4, Sonja Entringer3,5, Pathik D Wadhwa3, Claudia Buss6,7, Damien A Fair8,9,10. 1. Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. 2. Department of Medical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. 3. Development, Health and Disease Research Program, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA. 4. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. 5. Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health (BIH), Berlin, Germany. 6. Development, Health and Disease Research Program, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA. claudia.buss@charite.de. 7. Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health (BIH), Berlin, Germany. claudia.buss@charite.de. 8. Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. faird@ohsu.edu. 9. Department of Psychiatry, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. faird@ohsu.edu. 10. Advanced Imaging Research Center, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA. faird@ohsu.edu.
Abstract
Several lines of evidence support the link between maternal inflammation during pregnancy and increased likelihood of neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders in offspring. This longitudinal study seeks to advance understanding regarding implications of systemic maternal inflammation during pregnancy, indexed by plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations, for large-scale brain system development and emerging executive function skills in offspring. We assessed maternal IL-6 during pregnancy, functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired in neonates, and working memory (an important component of executive function) at 2 years of age. Functional connectivity within and between multiple neonatal brain networks can be modeled to estimate maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy. Brain regions heavily weighted in these models overlap substantially with those supporting working memory in a large meta-analysis. Maternal IL-6 also directly accounts for a portion of the variance of working memory at 2 years of age. Findings highlight the association of maternal inflammation during pregnancy with the developing functional architecture of the brain and emerging executive function.
Several lines of evidence support the link between maternal inflammation during pregnancy and increased likelihood of neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders in offspring. This longitudinal study seeks to advance understanding regarding implications of systemic maternal inflammation during pregnancy, indexed by plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations, for large-scale brain system development and emerging executive function skills in offspring. We assessed maternal IL-6 during pregnancy, functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired in neonates, and working memory (an important component of executive function) at 2 years of age. Functional connectivity within and between multiple neonatal brain networks can be modeled to estimate maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy. Brain regions heavily weighted in these models overlap substantially with those supporting working memory in a large meta-analysis. Maternal IL-6 also directly accounts for a portion of the variance of working memory at 2 years of age. Findings highlight the association of maternal inflammation during pregnancy with the developing functional architecture of the brain and emerging executive function.
Epidemiological evidence and work in animal models supports a strong
correspondence between maternal inflammation during pregnancy and an increased
likelihood of multiple psychiatric disorders in affected offspring including autism
(ASD), schizophrenia (SCHZ), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and
major depression (MDD)[1-5]. Until relatively recently,
inflammation was thought to arise purely from infection or injury; however, it is
now well documented that environmental, psychosocial, and general physical health
factors (e.g. obesity, famine, diet, low socioeconomic status, poverty, physical
and/or mental stress) can elicit alterations in the immune system leading to
heightened inflammation[4,5]. The developing fetus receives cues about the
extra-uterine environment via stress-sensitive aspects of maternal placental fetal
(MPF) biology, including inflammatory processes, known to play a role in the
intergenerational transmission of environmental risk factors[6]. Maternal inflammation during gestation has
been linked to adverse outcomes during childhood and an elevated risk for
psychopathology[4,7]. Maternal inflammatory processes during
pregnancy are therefore of significant interest as a potential common mediator of a
wide range of prenatal conditions associated with poor neurodevelopmental
outcomes.
Inflammatory Markers (Cytokines)
Cytokines (inflammatory markers) and their receptors are expressed
throughout the fetal brain and play a role in typical neurodevelopmental
processes involved in cell survival, proliferation and differentiation, axonal
growth and synaptogenesis[8,9]. Variations in cytokine
concentrations therefore have strong potential to alter neurodevelopmental
trajectories. One pro-inflammatory cytokine in particular, Interleukin-6 (IL-6),
has been indicated as a mediating factor in processes leading from maternal
inflammation to alterations in fetal brain development and subsequent risk for
psychopathology emerging later in life[10,11]. The precise
mechanisms linking maternal IL-6 concentrations with various neurodevelopmental
disorders have not been fully established. However, research in animal
models[4,12,13] provides strong evidence demonstrating that IL-6 is indeed
critical for relaying the effects of maternal inflammation to the developing
fetus, which can then lead to altered social and cognitive behaviors in affected
offspring[14].In the current work, IL-6 is likely best conceptualized as an indicator
of overall maternal systemic inflammation with potential to influence placental
and fetal inflammatory processes and subsequently fetal brain development in
concert with other important inflammatory mediators. Research suggests higher
systemic levels of inflammatory markers, including IL-6, may lead to cognitive
and behavioral deficits in affected offspring by altering the formation of
synapses and affecting synaptic function[4,15]. Disruption in
normative synaptic signaling and transmission has been shown to alter the
balance of neurotransmitters and the number of excitatory versus inhibitory
connections[16] in the
developing brain - potentially setting the stage for a diverse range of adverse
developmental outcomes. Given neuroinflammation appears to play a common role
across multiple neuropsychiatric and neurological disorders, and inflammatory
markers such as IL-6 are expressed throughout the brain, it appears cytokines
have the potential to affect normative growth processes at every stage of fetal
brain development. As such, it is unlikely that downstream of effects of
maternal inflammation are restricted to a single brain region or canonical
circuit, but are more likely to be broad.
Neuroimaging & Network Neuroscience
The relationship between maternal inflammation and fetal brain
development has largely focused on animal models due to various methodological
limitations. While this work is of critical importance, particularly for testing
causal models and mechanisms of action, more studies evaluating associations
between maternal inflammation and neurodevelopment in human offspring are needed
to understand the relevance of this work for human health. Non-invasive
neuroimaging methodologies are critical toward this end. Importantly,
non-invasive functional neuroimaging allows investigators to examine large-scale
distributed systems across the brain as they form and are modified during
development[17-22]. Considering the ubiquitous
role of IL-6 and other inflammatory processes in the CNS, such an approach is
needed to identify and characterize effects on brain development. As a complex
system, the brain exhibits systematic properties which are conserved across
biological and non-biological systems alike[23,24]. One such
feature is the degree to which the brain is organized into modular subsystems
(i.e., communities or networks) that integrate to support complex behavior and
cognition. Several studies have now shown that when communication within or
between these systems is disrupted, deficits in cognitive performance, atypical
behaviors and pervasive neurodevelopmental disorders can ensue[25].
Executive Functioning
Executive function (EF) is a broad term, which describes a set of
cognitive processes that support goal directed behavior. In adults and children,
EF has been shown to rely on large scale distributed brain systems, such as
those examined in the present study. Working memory, specifically, is a
resource-limited executive function that relates to the ability to temporarily
hold items in mind for manipulation. It is a core component of EF that can be
reliably measured beginning at 2-years of age[26]. At these early ages, working memory
performance serves as a foundation for later emerging academic skills, social
skills, and theory of mind[26,27]. It is also relevant for
long-term clinical outcomes, with deficits apparent across psychiatric disorders
linked to inflammation during pregnancy, including ADHD, Autism, and
Schizophrenia[28]. We
therefore hypothesized that heightened maternal inflammation during pregnancy
would have implications not only for large scale functional brain systems in the
neonatal period, but also for subsequent emerging working memory skills. We
examine working memory as a starting point for understanding the implications of
maternal inflammation during pregnancy and associated alterations in early brain
system development for subsequent core cognitive competencies. However, in line
with our understanding that inflammation has potential to broadly affect
developing neural systems, we conceptualize working memory as only one of
several aspects of EF which may be altered in association with heightened
maternal inflammation during pregnancy.
Purpose
In the current report we utilize resting-state functional connectivity
MRI (rs-fcMRI), network-based analytics, and multivariate machine-learning
methodologies to investigate associations between inflammation during pregnancy
(indexed via maternal IL-6 concentrations in early, mid and late gestation) and
newborn functional brain network topology. We posit, that if maternal
inflammation during pregnancy is highly relevant for fetal development of large
scale multivariate brain systems, then it should be possible to infer (i.e.
estimate) levels of maternal inflammation based on large-scale brain
connectivity patterns soon after birth. Furthermore, if maternal IL-6
concentrations during pregnancy are relevant for future working memory
performance, and IL-6 related alterations in neonatal functional connectivity
underlies this association then: A) the brain regions that most strongly
contribute to the models ability to estimate IL-6 (i.e. are more heavily
weighted) are likely to overlap with brain systems known to be involved with
working memory, and B) maternal IL-6 levels in our sample should relate to
future working memory itself. Thus, we assessed the multivariate relationship
between newborn functional brain connectivity within and between previously
identified large-scale brain networks, and maternal IL-6 levels concentrations
during pregnancy. Further, we examined the correspondence of features identified
within these multivariate brain models to a meta-analysis of the working memory
literature in a large number of studies utilizing Neurosynth[29]. Last, we tested the association between
serial measurements of IL-6 throughout pregnancy and working memory at 2-years
of age. The results provide strong evidence linking maternal inflammation during
pregnancy with newborn brain organization and future EF.
Results
In order to assess the relationship between mean maternal IL-6 and newborn
functional brain connectivity within and between systems, the current study
harnessed a machine-learning approach along with random resampling to estimate
generalized model performance. Machine-learning involves generating a multivariate
model that reflects the underlying patterns of out-of-sample data. In the cognitive
neuroscience literature it is often used with cross-validation or random resampling
(as used in the current report and elsewhere[30-32]) and is
well suited for modeling the high-dimensional nature of brain-connectivity data for
the purposes of estimating (or predicting) a univariate outcome (e.g. IL-6)
– even within an individual subject. Thus, the first aim in the current
report was to determine whether enough information exists in newborn functional
connectivity data at the systems level to estimate levels of maternal IL-6 during
the prenatal period. Figure 1 provides an
overview of the process.
Figure 1
Methods overview for combining rs-fcMRI, random resampling and PLSR
The above diagram provides a step-by-step overview visually depicting the process
of associating neonatal functional connectivity data with mean maternal IL-6.
After standard preprocessing steps, for each individual neonate, functional
timecourses representing regional activation for a given ROI are extracted and
pairwise cross-correlation matrices are constructed for 264 regions as described
in Power et al. 2011. From here, individual subnetworks are extracted;
specifically, matrices are extracted for each of the 10 networks assessed within
(a) and between (b) previously identified large-scale systems (i.e. DFM, VIS,
etc.). Connections between ROIs for a given within or between network functional
connectivity matrix are used as features to estimate mean maternal IL-6 using
partial-least squares regression (PLSR). Using a repeated (k=4000)
hold-out random resampling procedure, the data is randomly partitioned into
training (80%) and test (20%) sets, and the resulting
distribution of actual versus predicted IL-6 values is tested for significance
against a null distribution (i.e. random chance).
Importantly, several potential confounding variables were tested prior to the
analysis. Despite the tight window for which data were collected (see Methods), in
order to ensure effects reported in the study were not due to differences in length
of gestation or maturation, we show here that mean maternal IL-6 is not associated
with: gestational age at birth (r = 0.073,
p = .631), age at MRI scan (r
= 0.193, p = .200), nor age at working
memory assessment (24 months; r = 0.087, p
= .563). Additionally, as maternal age may influence inflammatory processes
and offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes, we examined the association between
maternal age and IL-6 levels (r = 0.037, p
= 0.870), and maternal age and infantworking memory at two-years of age
(r = 0.040, p = 0.800). The
results suggest that these various factors are unlikely to serve as confounds in
these analyses.In order to examine associations between neonatal functional brain
connectivity within and between previously identified networks and mean maternal
IL-6 (see Methods), we first extract pairwise functional connections (correlations)
within or between ROIs of ten common and previously defined functional brain
networks: the Default Mode (DFM), Visual (VIS), Cingulo-opercular (CON),
Sensorimotor (SSM), Salience (SAL), Frontoparietal (FP), Subcortical (SUB), Dorsal
Attention (DAN), Ventral Attention (VAN) and Cerebellar (CER) systems[33]. Thus, a full cross-correlation
matrix is created for every participant (264 x 264 x 84). Next, the connections for
a given network (10 within; 45 between) across participants are used (Fig. 1)[33] as input features to estimate maternal IL-6 concentrations
using partial least-squares regression (PLSR). Examining connections by network
increases interpretability of findings while also facilitating feature reduction.
While these networks and their corresponding regions of interest are derived from
work with adults, we posit that they are highly relevant for the organization of the
newborn brain. Multiple studies have identified putative precursors of these
networks in the neonatal period, and documented rapid development during infancy
such that they resemble adult networks by two-years-of-age[18,20,34].As described further in the Methods section and elsewhere[32], PLSR models are generated from a
subset of participants (training set) and model parameters (beta-weights) are
re-applied to data functional connectivity (FC) derived exclusively from a separate
test set of participants (i.e., participants not used to construct the model) over
many iterations. In order to assess performance of these models in the context of
the main question, permutation testing is used whereby the process is repeated and
the outcome (or response variable; i.e. IL-6) is shuffled (or permuted) on each
round of random resampling [35].
Finally, the resulting two distributions (true and random) of correlation values
(index of model accuracy) are examined. An initial filtering of the strongest
relationships for each within and between network model with maternal IL-6 is then
conducted simply by highlighting those with p<0.001 using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov
(KS) test corrected for multiple comparisons (See Table 1). However, because of the difficulty in interpreting p-values
for random resampling or cross-validation tests in machine learning[36,37], the primary outcome measure of interest for each model is
the effect size (the amount of divergence between the true and random distributions)
with larger effect sizes indicative of greater accuracy in estimating maternal IL-6
levels. Thus, only networks exceeding a small effect size (based on accepted
criteria for small (0.2), medium (0.5), and large (0.8) effect sizes) were further
examined. Here, to ensure the selection process is robust to the number of
components used for a given model, the median effect size across a range of PLSR
components is used (see Methods). Additionally, we examined the results using a
nested leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) procedure, an alternative method for
evaluating predictive models, in order to provide further support for our findings.
We refer the reader to the Methods section for further details regarding this
approach (also see Supplementary
Table 1).
Table 1
Partial least squares regression (PLSR) results
Significant associations with mean maternal IL-6 in our sample of neonates
(N=84) were identified via the cross-validated PLSR model for multiple
large-scale functional systems. Within network and between networks findings
were filtered based on: 1) statistical significance of the KS-test (with
Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons), and 2) median effect size
(Cohen’s D) across all possible components (e.g. 1–20) exceeding
a small effect size (> .2).
Average Model Performance for
Optimal Component Model (4000 iterations)
Mean Train
Mean Test
Networks
Cohen’s D (For Optimal Component
Model)
Median Cohen’s D (Across All
Components)
r
Std. Dev.
r
Std. Dev.
SUB
DAN
1.76
1.53
0.96
0.01
0.41
0.2
SUB
CER
1
0.5
0.77
0.02
0.25
0.22
VIS
DAN
0.86
0.5
0.56
0.04
0.2
0.21
SAL
CON
0.76
0.74
0.98
0
0.18
0.2
SUB
VAN
0.66
0.44
0.73
0.03
0.16
0.22
DAN
FP
0.61
0.58
0.91
0.01
0.14
0.21
SAL
0.45
0.39
0.97
0.01
0.11
0.23
VAN
CER
0.42
0.32
0.33
0.04
0.1
0.23
All Models Significant (p<0.001) Based on Bonferroni Corrected KS-test
Estimating mean maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy from newborn
functional brain connectivity
For this initial analysis maternal IL-6 was averaged over trimesters
given the high degree of correlation between IL-6 concentrations across
pregnancy (r = 0.553–0.684, p
< .001; also see Methods). Significant associations between
neonatal functional brain connectivity and mean maternal IL-6 concentrations
during pregnancy were identified for multiple large-scale functional systems
(Table 1; Figure 1). Of the 10 large-scale networks assessed,
connectivity 1 network (Salience, SAL) and
7 network-by-network combinations
passed the statistical significance and effect size filters, suggesting
potential associations with mean maternal IL-6. Within and between network
associations with maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy were observed
(number of observations) for the SUB (3), DAN (3), SAL (2), CER (2), VAN (2),
VIS (1), CON (1), FP (1) networks as schematized in Figure 2 (also see findings for LOOCV in the Supplementary Material;
Supplementary Figure
1, Supplementary
Table 1). Connectivity between the SUB⬄DAN
(d = 1.765), SUB⬄CER (d
= 1.023), VIS⬄DAN (d = 0.869), and
SAL⬄CON (d = 0.775) networks were most robustly
associated with maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy. A detailed
summary of the results is provided in Table
1. Findings are listed by network and ranked according to their
effect size. It is important to note that the number of connections used as
input features for a given network model is unrelated to the effect sizes found
for any of the models (i.e. effect sizes provided via Table 1; r =
−0.0920, p = 0.510).
Figure 2
Within and between functional network associations with mean maternal
IL-6
In panel a) the distribution of correlations between actual and estimated mean
maternal IL-6 values in our sample of neonates (N=84) obtained via PLSR
with randomized holdouts (4000 iterations; blue) is shown for each within
(diagonal) and between (off diagonal) network model that passed statistical
threshold (see Methods). The corresponding null distribution for each model is
shown in peach. Brighter highlighted cells denote stronger results according to
effect size, the primary outcome of interest, indicative of the strength of the
model in accurately estimating IL-6 (see Table
1 for actual statistics; Figure
4). In panel b) a network schematic depicting significant
associations within and between large-scale functional networks and mean
maternal IL-6 is visualized using the Gephi network visualization software.
Circles (or nodes) represent individual networks and are scaled according their
overall degree of association with mean maternal IL-6 (number of associations
passing criteria for statistical significance and effect size). Nodes with thick
borders represent significant network
associations with mean maternal IL-6. Line width between nodes represents the
relative effect size of network models.
Note: The graph is undirected and used for illustrative purposes and does not
represent graph theoretical relationships between communities.
Features of neonatal functional brain connectivity most strongly associated
with maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy
Features of neonatal functional brain connectivity most strongly
associated with maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy are summarized in
Figure 3. Here, absolute beta-weights
for a given ROI are summed across all filtered within and between network models
as described in the previous section and are reflected as the diameter of the
node. ROIs are scaled proportionally. This measurement is a modified version of
the graph theoretical metric node strength[38]; thus nodes with large diameters have connections with
strong influences to a given model’s ability to estimate maternal IL-6
concentrations during pregnancy, and nodes with small diameters do not. As
observed in Figure 3, regions in the SAL,
DAN, and SUB appear to dominate the landscape. Similar findings were observed
when using LOOCV (see Supplementary Figure 1, Supplementary Table 1). Within the
supplemental
materials we provide a table with the unscaled absolute beta-weights
summed for each ROI (i.e. node strength) for models estimating maternal IL-6
(Supplementary Table
2).
Figure 3
Predictive features (ROIs) within and between networks associated with mean
maternal IL-6
Predictive features representing individual brain regions for a given network
associated with mean maternal IL-6 are visualized on a standardized brain
surface using Caret 5 software. ROIs are scaled proportionally; node (circle)
sizes are determined by the overall degree of importance of a region in
estimating IL-6 (beta-weights). ROIs for networks significantly associated with
maternal IL-6 (see Table 1 for
statistics) include the SAL (black), DAN (green), SUB (orange), VAN (turquoise),
CER (pink), CON (purple), FP (yellow), and VIS (blue) networks.
Brain regions associated with working memory overlap with features more
heavily weighted in models that estimate IL-6
As noted in the introduction we posited that if these newborn
multivariate brain models (i.e. weighted predictions derived from neonatal brain
connectivity) estimating maternal IL-6 are relevant for future working memory,
we should be able to validate the models by testing their correspondence to
regions known to be involved with working memory. To do this we began with a
meta-analysis of 901 fMRI working memory studies to identify the regions most
tightly associated with working memory. This meta-analysis was conducted with
the Neurosynth software[29]. A
reverse-inference mask was generated that included all voxels in the brain that
corresponded to our search term “working memory”. We did not
include any additional thresholding to avoid any potential biases. Regions from
our analysis were then split into those that fell inside the working memory mask
(54 regions), and those that fell outside the mask (210 regions; see Figure 4 panel b). A simple comparison of the
node strengths outlined above (detailed in Table
1, also Supplementary Table 2) showed that regions within the working memory
mask are significantly more strongly associated with maternal IL-6
concentrations during pregnancy compared to those nodes outside of the mask
(also See Supplementary Figure
1). While not arguing for specificity, this result suggests that
brain regions supporting working memory may be particularly associated with
higher levels of maternal IL-6 during pregnancy.
Figure 4
Relationship between maternal IL-6, neonatal functional connectivity &
working memory
In panel a) predictive features are overlaid on top of voxelwise, meta-analysis
maps related to working memory in our sample of neonates with assessment data
(N=46) generated via Neurosynth.org. Neurosynth meta-analysis maps for
working memory are comprised of results reported from 901 fMRI studies
(reverse-inference; corrected for multiple comparisons using a false discovery
rate (FDR) criterion of .01 as previously described[29]). In panel b) we show the combined sum
of the beta weights of a given region (i.e. node strength) for those regions
(N=54) within (overlapping) the meta-analysis working memory mask, and
those regions (N=210) outside (non-overlapping) the mask. On average,
regions within the working memory mask are more predictive of IL-6 as indicated
by an independent two-tailed t-test assuming unequal variances
(t(70)=2.90, p=.005). In
the boxplot, the x indicates the mean value, horizontal lines
within the box represent the medians; box limits indicate the 25th and
75th percentiles, whiskers extend 1.5 times the interquartile
range from the 25th and 75th percentiles, outliers are represented by dots. In
panel c) we show directly that using all three gestational time points for IL-6,
we can also predict future working memory performance
(d=0.747) at two years of age in these same infants
(N=46) using PLSR.
Although it would not be feasible to exhaustively test the Neurosynth
generated mask for all other behavioral and cognitive domains in relation to the
multivariate brain models, we examined several other domains (including language
and negative emotionality). Within the supplementary material we show how
the meta-analytic brain masks for these domains relate to the IL-6 associated
brain maps (Supplementary
Materials; Supplementary Figures 1 and 2). None of these additional domains had
a meta-analytic brain mask that overlapped significantly with the nodes
identified in the IL-6 models. Though we do not argue that our findings are
truly specific to working memory, these data provide examples that may
illustrate how the results are not necessarily related to all behaviors
IL-6 measurements across each trimester directly predict working memory
performance at 2-years of age
If indeed the newborn brain models that estimate IL-6 are related to
future working memory performance, as suggested by the meta-analysis above, then
maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy would be expected to show an
association with offspring working memory performance. Therefore, we examined
working memory performance in 46 children in the current study who completed the
Spin the Pots task[27] at 2-years-of-age. Here, a PLSR model is generated
using maternal IL-6 concentrations collected within each trimester as features
used to predict working memory performance at 2 years age (Fig. 4). Given the high degree of correlation between
these predictors (noted above), one component was selected to estimate working
memory. Results from this model show a strong relationship when compared to a
null distribution (Fig 4 panel c;
p<0.001, d = 0.747). On average, the 3rd trimester
carried the strongest weight (absolute beta-weights from the PLSR model)
predicting the working memory outcome (1st trimester = 0.268;
2nd trimester = 0.3897; 3rd trimester
= 0.5392). The univariate relationship between mean maternal IL-6 and
working memory at 2 years shows a negative correlation (r
= −0.314; p = .03), which establishes that increased
systemic immune activation is associated with decreased working memory
performance at 2 years.As a follow-up to these analyses, and to further explore the specificity
of these findings to working memory, we also examined negative emotionality as a
separate developmental domain at the same timepoints for 63 of the 84 infants
who had scores on this measure[58]. In this case, maternal IL-6 did not relate to offspring
negative emotionality at 24 months (r=.003,
p=0.983). In the absence of this relationship, we
tested whether newborn connectivity can predict negative emotionality directly.
We did this following the same steps described in the primary analyses
predicting IL-6. We identified a subset of systems that were predictive of
negative emotionality; however, predictive patterns, while showing some overlap,
were mostly distinct with maps predicting IL-6. Unlike the strong relationship
in the original report, the overlap of regions predictive of negative
emotionality with working memory regions from the meta-analysis are
statistically non-significant (t(96)=1.856,
p=0.415; Supplementary Figure 3). Again,
although this is not an argument for true specificity of the original findings,
we believe these analyses provide another example that illustrates how our
findings are not related to all behaviors.
Discussion
In the current report, we highlight associations between maternal IL-6
concentrations during pregnancy (as an index of maternal inflammation) and offspring
functional brain networks shortly after birth. We show that based on these
connectivity patterns within and between large scale neural systems in the newborn
brain, mean maternal IL-6 concentrations can be estimated using machine-learning.
This “estimation” capacity provides an empirical link (currently
missing in humans) between prenatal exposure to inflammatory cytokines, such as
IL-6, and patterns of newborn functional brain connectivity across the brain. In
addition, we validate and show the potential implications of this relationship by
highlighting the correspondence of brain regions estimating maternal IL-6 to regions
in the brain tightly linked to working memory capacity throughout the lifespan.
Last, to confirm the implications of maternal inflammation for working memory
performance, we show, directly, that maternal IL-6 concentrations are significantly
associated with working memory performance at 2-years-of-age.
Between & within-network neonatal functional connectivity is associated
with maternal IL-6
The associations observed between mean maternal IL-6 and newborn
functional connectivity are widespread and involve networks and regions
important for supporting normative social, emotional and cognitive development.
Many of these systems also have relevance for various neuropsychiatric
disorders. Specifically, the subcortical (SUB), salience (SAL) and dorsal
attention (DAN) systems were strongly associated with the estimation of maternal
Il-6 concentrations during pregnancy. Aberrant connectivity between these
networks are implicated in multiple neuropsychiatric disorders including ADHD,
schizophrenia, and autism[25].
Within Network
Within network connectivity for one neonatal brain system was able
to estimate maternal IL-6 concentrations during pregnancy moderately: the
salience (SAL) system. The SAL has long been identified as being involved
with detection of salient, or biologically meaningful information, and
interacting with other brain systems to result in orienting
attention[22,39-41]. In addition, the SAL has repeatedly
surfaced in the literature as being atypical across many
psychopathologies[25]. Interestingly, in a recent review, DiMartino and
colleagues (2014) point out that system-wide changes observed in functional
topology can be influenced by alterations observed in a single
network[42]. Due to
the role of the SAL in detecting and attuning to relevant environmental
stimuli, and prior work highlighting its role in engaging other cortical
networks involved in executive function, it is highly plausible that
individual differences in the SAL could relate to altered functional
topology throughout the brain, both concurrently, and over the course of
development[39,40]. This possibility is
bolstered by findings that the insula, considered a core part of the SAL
system, is a particularly highly interconnected brain region beginning in
early infancy[18].
Between Network
Overall, connectivity between higher-order systems (e.g. DAN, VAN,
SAL) and lower-order (e.g. SUB) networks were robustly associated with mean
maternal IL-6 (see Figure 2 and Table 1, and Supplemental Materials).These results are interesting in light of prior research suggesting
that individual differences in connectivity between subcortical regions and
regions situated within the DAN in neonates are relevant for subsequent
emotional and cognitive development during infancy.[43] Development of and interactions
between the SAL and early attention systems (e.g. DAN,VAN) have also been
proposed to be important for emerging effortful (or executive) control of
attention.[44,45] . Emerging effortful
control of attention involves the capacity to re-orient from irrelevant to
relevant stimuli prior to the establishment of executive control of motor
output – a process that is believed to support executive functioning
later on in childhood, such as task-switching and impulse control.
Refinement of executive control involves an increase in communication
between the DAN and later developing FP system[20,46]. Our findings suggest that maternal inflammation during
pregnancy is associated with the coordinated functioning between these
systems as it emerges during the neonatal period.The relative degree of integration versus segregation of functional
networks over the course of development in relation to signals in the
prenatal environment (such as maternal inflammation) is an important topic
for future research. In addition to the early development of modular
(integrated) networks, communication between systems has been shown to
evolve over the first year of life in an independent and non-linear
fashion[18], which
may further signify the importance of our current findings. It will be
important in future work to identify how the trajectories of development in
these systems may be modulated by prenatal exposure to inflammation. Last,
it will be important to test the relationship of maternal inflammation and
newborn functional connectivity signals in animal models where strict
experimental controls can be applied, and causal inferences can be
made[47,48].
Newborn functional connectivity is associated with regions known to be
involved with future working memory and maternal IL-6 levels directly predict
working memory performance
As noted in the introduction, working memory is a core component of
executive functioning which relates to emerging theory of mind, social skills,
academic performance, and future mental health outcomes (including ADHD, ASD,
and Schizophrenia)[27,28]. Such disorders (ADHD, ASD, and
Schizophrenia) have previously been linked to maternal inflammation during
pregnancy and share common deficits across a range of executive functions,
including working memory performance[28], which may precede the traditional age at diagnosis.
While the current findings in no way suggest inflammation is the
“cause” of these disorders, they do point to an association
between at least one component dimension (i.e., atypical executive
functioning/working memory) that spans across each of these diagnostic
domains.Using a meta-analysis[29], we showed that brain regions most strongly associated with
estimating maternal IL-6 also strongly overlap with regions in the brain known
to be important for working memory performance. The implication of this finding
is that fluctuations in maternal IL-6 levels may be relevant for offspring
working memory later in life due to associations with early emerging variation
in functional brain systems. The follow-up analysis directly showed that
maternal IL-6 concentrations in our sample are predictive of, and negatively
correlated with, actual working memory performance in the same children 2-years
later. Importantly, these findings do not indicate an isolated association
between maternal inflammation during pregnancy and offspring working memory
performance; it is likely that maternal inflammation is also relevant for other
cognitive domains. Indeed, it is largely known that working memory covaries with
other executive functions including inhibition, task control, and impulse
control, amongst others[49]. The
brain systems capable of estimating maternal IL-6 levels in this sample (e.g.
CON, SAL, DAN, and FP) also span a host of other higher order cognitive
functions. Therefore, we assume that while our findings clearly suggest an
association between prenatal inflammation and individual differences in working
memory performance, the effects of prenatal inflammation are unlikely to be
specific and direct causality cannot be inferred. Future translational work that
leverages both animal and human models with this regard will be of high
importance to elucidate these issues further.Another consideration of these findings, is that maternal IL-6 acts in
concert with other aspects of maternal-placental-fetal biology with potential to
influence brain development and subsequent working memory. We anticipate that
the amount of variance explained with regard to future working memory or other
executive functions will be greatly increased by including in our model other
aspects of maternal biology during pregnancy, including endocrine, metabolic and
additional inflammatory markers, which also have potential to act as mediating
pathways for the influence of diverse prenatal conditions on the developing
fetal brain[14]. Incorporating
indicators of the quality of the postnatal environment, such as socioeconomic
status, availability of nutrition, and responsive caregiving, would also likely
enhance our capacity to predict working memory and other EF outcomes, and will
be an important direction for future research. Animal models will continue to be
highly informative and allow for teasing apart the individual and combined
influence of various conditions and biological pathways on the developing brain.
While beyond the scope of the current report, such work on both of these fronts
is already underway.
Limitations
The networks used to evaluate the relationship between mean maternal
IL-6 and neonatal functional connectivity in the present study were originally
obtained in adults, but have now been well documented across studies, age
cohorts and imaging modalities[33]. Specifically, work by Gao and colleagues has previously
reported the modular architecture of the infant brain is dominated by early
developing primary sensory systems, followed by the emergence of default-mode
and dorsal-attention systems[18]. Lin et al., using the same regions utilized in the current
paper, have also shown that while the networks are not fully integrated at these
early stages of development, their component parts are formed early on
[17,18,20,50]. As outlined
within the introduction of the current manuscript, this approach allows us to
examine well-established and validated networks of interest and how they relate
to complex behavior at 2 years of age. Nonetheless, future work utilizing robust
network definitions defined during the neonatal period will be of great
interest. It should also be noted that, by necessity, assessment of connectivity
in the neonatal brain is conducted during sleep. While the multivariate models
estimating maternal IL-6 are relatively strong and accurate during this state,
more work attempting to clarify awake versus sleep patterns in infants is
warranted[19,20].Our approach to identifying correspondence between the features
identified in the multivariate brain models and brain regions involved in
working memory based on the Neurosynth meta-analysis does not indicate that
these features are uniquely involved in working memory versus other cognitive
abilities. Working memory itself is a well-studied phenomenon, and we chose it
because it is a core component of EF that can be reliably measured beginning at
2-years of age[26]. While our
findings highlight sensitivity of maternal IL-6 and associated brain features at
birth to future working memory, this finding should not be taken to imply
specificity. Maternal inflammation and brain features associated at birth are
likely to influence in some respect other cognitive domains, as well.With regard to the sample, the mother-infant dyads recruited and
analyzed in the current study are not representative of high-risk populations
and future investigations within such samples are warranted. However, we feel
analyzing maternal IL-6 within a normative range, as opposed to more extreme
ends of the scale (i.e. infection and/or neuro-trauma), is a particular strength
of the study. This approach highlights the associations of even modest variation
in IL-6 with neonatal functional connectivity and later EF. While maternal age,
gestational age and age at scan were not correlated with our variables of
interest (i.e. maternal IL-6 concentrations and working memory at two years of
age) future work assessing the factors contributing to elevated maternal
inflammation, and interactions between pre- and post-natal factors are
warranted.
Conclusion
Research to date, largely conducted in animal models, has shown associations
between prenatal exposure to maternal inflammation and atypical offspring
neurodevelopment and behavior. Here using machine-learning and resting-state
functional MRI in a sample of 84 neonates, we show variations in maternal IL-6
concentrations (across the course of pregnancy) are associated with individual
differences in functional brain networks in the neonatal period and relate to future
working memory performance. These results support and extend prior work examining
prenatal IL-6 administration in animal models, and studies at the molecular level,
which highlight the role of inflammatory processes in typical and atypical
neurodevelopment. Importantly, by examining brain function shortly after birth, we
increase the capacity to distinguish between the influences of prenatal (such as
maternal inflammation during pregnancy) versus postnatal environmental factors on
functional brain development. Undoubtedly, pre- and postnatal environmental
conditions have the potential to interactively affect brain developmental
trajectories. Thus, future work aims to characterize how pre- and postnatal factors
(biological, psychosocial, environmental, etc.) interact to influence later brain
and cognitive trajectories. Ultimately, such an understanding can help elucidate the
complex interplay between biological transmission of risk for poor
neurodevelopmental outcomes, and may inform early intervention efforts aimed at
reducing the impact of prenatal adversity on offspring brain development and
subsequent developmental outcomes.
Methods
Participants
Neonates included in the study (N=84; M=25.45 days,
SD=12.09 days; 50% Female) are part of an ongoing longitudinal
study for which mothers (N=84; M=28.48 years, SD=5.15
years) were recruited during the first trimester of pregnancy. Exclusionary
criteria for mothers were as follows: maternal use of psychotropic medication
during pregnancy; maternal use of corticosteroids during pregnancy; maternal
alcohol or drug use during pregnancy; and known congenital, genetic, or
neurologic disorder of the fetus (e.g., Down syndrome, fragile X). Exclusionary
criteria for infants were birth before 34 weeks gestation, and evidence of a
congenital, genetic or neurologic disorder. Our final study population of 84
mother/infant dyads came from a total of 152 mothers who were originally
recruited for the study. Twenty-one mothers opted out of the MRI/fMRI scan after
birth. Of the remaining 131 that were attempted, 24 were deemed unsuccessful, as
no data were obtained, and 1 participant was not utilized because of maternal
use of corticosteroids during pregnancy (which was discovered prior to
application of the initial exclusionary criteria). The remaining 22 participants
not utilized either did not have a successful resting state functional MRI scan
acquisition, or had insufficient amounts of resting-state data (see below for
more details). All procedures were approved by the Institutional Review Board at
the University of California, Irvine in compliance with ethical regulations and
standards. All participants provided written informed consent. Participants with
behavioral data did not differ from full sample with regard to demographic
variables. These details have been provided previously[43]. All neonates with usable MRI data, and
maternal IL-6 measurements were used in the current study. Simulation models
incorporating effect sizes from studies on maternal stress biology at University
of California Irvine, and data regarding variation in the neonatal
brain[51] were used to
determine the original sample size for study. While no formal statistical
analysis was done to predetermine sample-size for this specific analysis, our
sample is similar in size to prior infant functional brain imaging
work[52,53], and to our knowledge, the largest
infant longitudinal sample to date that also includes maternal prenatal immune
response data[54]. As this was
one normative sample without any specific sample manipulations, no participant
randomization was conducted during sample collection.
Maternal IL-6 Collection & Assessment
Collection of maternal blood samples for measurement of IL-6 occurred in
early, mid and late pregnancy. Mean gestational age in weeks at each collection
was 12.7(1.71)), 20.5 (1.39)), 30.4 (1.33)) for each time point respectively. To
determine concentrations of IL-6 concentrations, peripheral blood was collected
in serum tubes (BD Vacutainer). Serum samples were allowed to clot for 30 min on
room temperature and were centrifuged at 4 °C at 1500 x g. Serum was
then separated and stored at −80 C. Serum IL-6 levels were determined
using a commercial high sensitive ELISA (eBioscience) with a sensitivity of 0,03
pg/ml according to the manufacturer’s instructions. The intra- and
inter-assay coefficients of variability for IL-6 measurements were 10%
and 14% respectively. Measurements for the imaging portion of the
analysis were averaged across trimesters given IL-6 concentrations at each time
point were highly correlated (r= 0.553–0.684, p < .001).
MRI Data acquisition
Neuroimaging data was collected during a tight window at approximately 4
weeks-of-age (M=3.79 weeks, SD=1.84) during natural sleep on a
TIM Trio, Siemens Medical System 3.0T scanner. Neonates were swaddled and fitted
with ear protection to reduce scanner noise. Waking and respiration were
monitored. High resolution T2- (TR=3200 ms, echo time=255 ms,
resolution=1×1×1 mm, 4.18 mins) and T1-weighted scans
(MP-RAGE TR=2400 ms, inversion time=1200 ms, echo
time=3.16 ms, flip angle=8°,
resolution=1×1×1 mm, 6.18 mins) were collected.
Functional images for resting state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) were
obtained using a gradient-echo, echoplanar imaging (EPI) sequence sensitive to
blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) contrast (TR=2000 ms, TE=30
ms, FOV=220x220x160mm, flip angle = 77°). Full brain
coverage was obtained with 32 ascending-interleaved 4 mm axial slices with a 1
mm skip. Steady-state magnetization was assumed after 4 frames (8s). Functional
data was acquired in a single scan consisting of 195 volumes for all but eight
participants whose scans consisted of 150 volumes during the initial phase of
the study.
MRI and fMRI data preprocessing
Brain images were separated from the rest of the head tissue with the
Brain Extraction Tool from the FMRIB Software Library (FSL)[55], and an additional refinement with an
in-house technique (labeled refine mask) to improve brain masks as necessary.
This technique utilizes the mask generated from co-registered functional data
back-registered to the anatomical image to ensure accurate results. Functional
images were preprocessed to reduce artifacts utilizing tools from FSL and the
4dfp Suite of Image Processing Programs (ftp://ftp.imaging.wustl.edu/pub/raichlab/4dfptools/)[38,43]. These steps included: (i) removal of a central spike
caused by MR signal offset, (ii) correction of odd versus even slice intensity
differences attributable to interleaved acquisition without gaps, (iii)
realignment, and (iv) intensity normalization to a whole brain mode value of
1000. Atlas transformation of the functional data was computed for each
individual via the high-resolution T2 scan. The transformation involved
calculation of a single matrix for each individual to facilitate registration
both to a standard infant template (0- to 2-month age range; MRI Study of Normal
Brain Development)[56], and to
the Talairach coordinate system[57] (by aligning the infant template to a custom
atlas-transformed target template [711-2B] using a series of
affine transforms. Each run was then resampled in atlas space, combining
realignment and atlas transformation in one interpolation. All subsequent
operations were performed on the atlas-transformed volumetric time series.
rs-fcMRI preprocessing
Additional preprocessing steps were employed to reduce spurious variance
stemming from non-neuronal activity[22,38,43]. Steps included: 1) regression of six
parameters (head re-alignment estimates) obtained by rigid body head motion
correction, 2) regression of the whole brain signal[38,58,59], 3)
regression of ventricular signal averaged from ventricular regions-of-interest
(ROI), 4) regression of white matter signal averaged from white matter ROI, 5)
regression of first order derivative terms for whole brain, ventricular, and
white matter signals (to account for variance between regressors), and 6)
temporal bandpass filtering (0.009 Hz < f < 0.08
Hz)[22,38,55]. As described in the steps above, nuisance regression was
applied prior to bandpass filtering to circumvent the potential for
reintroducing unfiltered noise (i.e. previously filtered frequencies) back into
the data[60].
Motion
Additional steps were taken to examine movement of a given frame
relative to the previous frame, known as framewise displacement (FD)[55]. We used a volume censoring
approach, removing volumes associated with greater than .3 mm FD (and 1
preceding and 2 following volumes to account for temporal blurring)[55]. Scans with less than 4
minutes of data remaining after volume censoring (N=10) were not
included in analyses. Additionally, 6 functional scans were either not
successfully acquired (N=4) or excluded for poor quality after visual
inspection (N=2), resulting in our final sample size of N=84.
For the remaining infants, scan length was approximately 5 minutes
(M=5.33, S=0.072). For
remaining volumes, mean FD was approximated (M=0.083,
S=0.02). No association was found between the
number of frames remaining (r2 = 0.0018,
r2-adj = −0.0103,
p = .698), nor remaining mean FD
(r2 = 0.0001,
r2-adj = −0.0120,
p = .910) with gestational age (GA). The same is
true for mean IL-6 (frames remaining r2 =
0.0297, r2-adj = 0.0178, p
= .117; remaining mean FD r2 =
0.0076, r2-adj = −0.0045,
p = .492) and working memory (frames remaining
r2 = 0.0150,
r2-adj = −0.007,
p = .418; remaining mean FD
r2 = 0.0451,
r2-adj = −0.0233,
p = .157).
Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)
We chose to use PLSR to assess associations between neonatal functional
brain connectivity and variations in mean maternal IL-6 due to the
high-dimensional feature space (number predictors). PLSR is a multivariate
technique similar to Principle Components Analysis (PCA) that models a response
by reducing a large set of correlated features into orthogonal (uncorrelated)
components. However, PLSR takes the outcome variable of interest (y; maternal
IL-6) into consideration by limiting the relationship (amount of covariance)
between the predictor variables (x) and maximizing covariance (prediction)
between x and y via singular-value decomposition (SVD)[61].
Applying PLSR to within and between connectivity matrices
Here, (x) represents an n-by-m two-dimensional input matrix where n is
the number of participants (rows) and m is the number of connections (columns)
within a given functional matrix (within or between network). (y) is a
1-dimensional vector containing our outcome measure of interest (mean maternal
IL6) for each participant. We used cross-validation to identify the optimal
number of components used to estimate mean maternal IL-6 in our sample of 84
neonates. Cross-validation is an iterative process whereby a sample dataset is
randomly partitioned into training sets used (exclusively) to build the models
and independent test sets used to assess a model’s robustness, prevent
overfitting, and increase generalizability to unseen data. This approach
identifies a given number of components capable of providing the best overall
fit while simultaneously reducing the mean-squared error (MSE) and explaining
the greatest variance. In order to avoid selection bias, maximize sample-size
and generalizability within our dataset in the absence of a true validation set,
we used 10-fold cross-validation to estimate an optimal number of components to
use per network model. With that said, to be sure that our findings were robust
to this model selection step, we ran a subsequent analysis without component
selection. In this case, we run the predictions across a large number of
components (e.g., 1–20), and take the median effect size of those
predictions. Thus, the procedure is agnostic and does not require the original
component selection step. Findings from both procedures are shown in Table 1. Due to the nature of the analysis,
data collection and analytics were not performed blind to the conditions of the
experiments.
Random Resampling
Using a fixed number of components, or across a range of components as
identified in the previous step for a given network model, a holdout procedure
is used to generate a distribution of correlations between true and estimated
mean maternal IL-6. Specifically, here participants are pseudo-randomly
partitioned using a 20% holdout procedure resulting in 80%
training (68) and 20% test (16) sets. This process is repeated over a
large number of iterations (k=4000) in order to reduce sampling bias.
The distribution of correlations (fit) between true and estimated mean maternal
IL-6 is then tested for robustness against a null distribution (i.e. random
chance). In order to achieve this, a process identical to that described above
is repeated, however, on each iteration the outcome variable (y) is randomly
permuted (i.e. shuffled) and new PLSR models are generated. Networks are then
initially filtered to those most strongly related to IL-6 by simply choosing
those networks with a p-value < 0.001 using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and
whose effect size is small (0.2), medium (0.5), or large (0.8). In addition to
our random resampling procedures, a Leave-one-out-cross validation procedure was
also used to confirm the overall nature of our findings (Supplementary Materials; Supplemental Figure
1).
Predictive Features
As schematized in Figure 1, for
each participant, a functional connectivity matrix is generated from a set of
264 ROIs which belong to larger network or communities[33]. Of these previously identified
networks, we assess 10 commonly cited and well-validated functional brain
networks including the Default Mode (DFM), Visual (VIS), Cingulo-opercular
(CON), Sensorimotor (SSM), Salience (SAL), Frontoparietal (FP), Subcortical
(SUB), Dorsal Attention (DAN), Ventral Attention (VAN) and Cerebellar (CER)
systems. From the larger FC matrices comprising all 264 ROIs and networks,
within and between subnetwork matrices of interest are extracted, and the unique
connections between ROI pairs are used as features (x) in the PLSR models used
to estimate mean maternal IL-6. The beta weights obtained, signifying the
importance of a particular connection between ROIs in the model, were ranked and
summed by their absolute values across tests (consensus features). ROIs were
then plotted on a standardized brain surface using Caret 5 software (University
of Washington, St. Louis) and scaled proportionally by their absolute beta
weights.
Infant working memory performance
Spin-the-pots[27], is a visuospatial, multi-location search task designed
to probe working memory in toddlers and young children. Pots are arranged on a
spinning tray (“lazy susan”) and participants are asked to place
stickers inside 6 of 8 pots. Participants must try to remember which pots have
stickers in them, and choose one after each time the tray is spun. Scoring is
calculated by taking the total number of possible trials (16) minus the number
of errors (turns taken to recover the stickers unsuccessfully). Of the 84
neonates with resting state functional connectivity data, to date 46
(M=24.66 mo, SD=0.73 mo; 48% Female) have been assessed
with this measure at two years of age. Using the same procedure as in the
primary analyses (i.e. PLSR paired with random resampling), associations between
maternal IL-6 concentrations in early, mid and late pregnancy and infant working
memory performance were tested. Further, a traditional regression analysis was
used to assess the direction (positive or negative) of the relationship between
mean maternal IL-6 and working memory in our sample of neonates.
Infant negative emotionality
The revised parent-report measure of infant temperament, the Infant
Behavior Questionnaire (IBQ) was used to assess infant negative
emotionality[62].
Nested Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV)
We repeated the validation process described above using a leave-one out
approach. Here, the number of folds is equal to the number of participants
(N=84). Within each fold, a test participant (N=1) is held-out
and predictive models are constructed using a nested LOOCV with the training
data of remaining participants (N=83). Again, in order to test against a
null-distribution, this process is repeated a number of times. Here, because of
the computing load of generating random bootstrap models with nested LOOCV, we
only ran 100 permutations to test against. Importantly, the networks we focus on
in the manuscript (SUB, DAN, SAL) tend to remain the best performing models
compared to random chance. In addition, the nodes most strongly related to IL-6
using the LOOCV procedure continue to overlap more strongly with regions
activated in the working memory meta-analysis using Neurosynth (Supplemental Figure 1).Of note, leave-one out cross-validation approaches tend to produce less
reliable estimates of model performance, and is one reason we chose the random
resampling procedure noted above. There are several limitations to the LOOCV
with respect to generalizability. For example, early simulation
studies[37,63] have evaluated a range of methods for
model validation. These reports found an interesting relationship between the
number of folds (2-fold to LOOCV were tested) and the variability of the
predictive error. As the validation procedure uses increasingly more data (i.e.
becomes more LOOCV), the models themselves become more stable because the
structure of the training data is increasingly similar across the models.
However, this is not necessarily a positive result because there is very little
ability to improve a poorly generalizable model (i.e., it comes at a cost to the
testing data, where the testing error becomes highly variable across the folds).
As a result, the predictive estimate of model performance: the mean accuracy
across all folds which is an estimate of the generalization error, becomes more
variable as well. In other words, the generalizability of the performance of the
model (i.e. whether this model will work with new training data) is more
difficult to assess with a LOOCV procedure, as it exhibits a large pessimistic
bias. This particular behavior is now well documented in the literature and
discussed to some degree in the imaging field here (http://www.russpoldrack.org/2012/12/the-perils-of-leave-one-out.html).
Again, this is one reason why we chose our current approach. Nonetheless, our
general findings in the main manuscript replicate with this cross-validation
procedure as well.
Code availability
Partial least-squares regression is available as a standalone function
within the Matlab (The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, United States)
software package. Custom Matlab code used within the manuscript for all analyses
is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the
corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Life Sciences Reporting Summary
Further information on experimental design is available in the Life
Sciences Reporting Summary.
Authors: Christopher D Smyser; Nico U F Dosenbach; Tara A Smyser; Abraham Z Snyder; Cynthia E Rogers; Terrie E Inder; Bradley L Schlaggar; Jeffrey J Neil Journal: Neuroimage Date: 2016-05-11 Impact factor: 6.556
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