Alan Shiun Yew Hu1, Peter O' Donohue2, Ronny K Gunnarsson3, Alan de Costa4. 1. Cairns Clinical School, College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Queensland 4870, Australia. Electronic address: alan.hu@my.jcu.edu.au. 2. Cairns Clinical School, College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Queensland 4870, Australia; Department of Surgery, Townsville Hospital, Queensland, Australia. Electronic address: pete_od@hotmail.com. 3. Cairns Clinical School, College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia; Research and Development Unit, Primary Health Care and Dental Care Narhalsan, Southern Älvsborg County, Region Västra Götaland, Sweden; Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, The Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: ronny.gunnarsson@gu.se. 4. Cairns Clinical School, College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia. Electronic address: alan.decosta@jcu.edu.au.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. METHODS: A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. RESULTS: Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10-14). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown
BACKGROUND: Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. METHODS: A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. RESULTS: Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10-14). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown