Therese M-L Andersson1, Gerda Engholm2, Anne-Line Brink3, Eero Pukkala4, Magnus Stenbeck5, Laufey Tryggvadottir6, Elisabete Weiderpass7, Hans Storm8. 1. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: therese.m-l.andersson@ki.se. 2. Department of Documentation & Quality, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Department of Cancer Prevention & Information, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 4. Finnish Cancer Registry - Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland. 5. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Division of Insurance Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. 6. Icelandic Cancer Registry, Reykjavik, Iceland; Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland. 7. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway. 8. Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of cancer and the most preventable cause of cancer worldwide. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to tobacco smoking and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in smoking prevalence. METHODS: The Prevent macro-simulation model was used, estimating the future number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045), for 13 cancer sites, under different scenarios of changing smoking prevalence, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant prevalence prevailed. RESULTS: A total of 430,000 cancer cases, of the 2.2 million expected for the 13 studied cancer sites, could be avoided in the Nordic countries over the 30-year period if smoking was eliminated from 2016 onwards. If prevalence of smoking is reduced to 5% by year 2030 and to 2% by 2040, 230,000 cancer cases could be avoided. The largest proportion of cancers can be avoided in Denmark, where smoking prevalence is the highest, and similar to the prevalence in many European countries. CONCLUSION: A large amount of cancers could be avoided in the Nordic countries if smoking prevalence was reduced. The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the prevalence of tobacco smoking in the Nordic countries.
BACKGROUND:Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of cancer and the most preventable cause of cancer worldwide. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to tobacco smoking and estimate the potential for cancer prevention by changes in smoking prevalence. METHODS: The Prevent macro-simulation model was used, estimating the future number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045), for 13 cancer sites, under different scenarios of changing smoking prevalence, and compared to the projected number of cases if constant prevalence prevailed. RESULTS: A total of 430,000 cancer cases, of the 2.2 million expected for the 13 studied cancer sites, could be avoided in the Nordic countries over the 30-year period if smoking was eliminated from 2016 onwards. If prevalence of smoking is reduced to 5% by year 2030 and to 2% by 2040, 230,000 cancer cases could be avoided. The largest proportion of cancers can be avoided in Denmark, where smoking prevalence is the highest, and similar to the prevalence in many European countries. CONCLUSION: A large amount of cancers could be avoided in the Nordic countries if smoking prevalence was reduced. The results from this study can be used to understand the potential impact and significance of primary prevention programmes targeted towards reducing the prevalence of tobacco smoking in the Nordic countries.
Authors: Esther de Vries; Miguel Zamir Torres; Martha Patricia Rojas; Gustavo Díaz; Oscar Fernando Herrán Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-10-28 Impact factor: 2.692