Comparison of various anthropometric indices for the identification of a predictor of incident hypertension: the ARIRANG study.

We compared the predictive capability of weight, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), body mass index (BMI), body roundness index (BRI), and a body shape index (ABSI) to identify incident hypertension, and to determine whether any of these indices may be used as a better single predictor of incident hypertension. A total of 1718 participants aged 39-72 years were collected  in a longitudinal study. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate various anthropometric indices as significant predictors of hypertension. During 2.8 years of follow-up, 185 new cases of hypertension (10.8%) were reported. The BRI and ABSI were significantly higher in the participants who had developed hypertension than in those who had not (4.15 ± 1.01 vs. 3.57 ± 1.03, 0.80 ± 0.04 vs. 0.78 ± 0.05; respectively, p < 0.001). After adjusting for confounding variables, logistic regression analysis indicated that participants within the highest quartile of WC and WHtR were 4.79 and 4.51 times more likely to have hypertension than those within the lowest quartile (OR 4.79, 95% CI 2.49-9.20 vs. OR 4.51, 95% CI 2.41-8.43, respectively, p < 0.0001); in contrast, no such correlation was found for BMI, WHR, BRI, and ABSI. WC (AUC: 0.672) showed a more powerful predictive ability for hypertension (p < 0.0001) than BMI (AUC: 0.623), and an equal predictive power for hypertension as WHtR (AUC: 0.662) and BRI (AUC: 0.662) in the general population. We concluded that WC and/or WHtR but not BMI, showed superior prediction capability compared to WHR, BRI, and ABSI, for determining the incidence of hypertension in a community-based prospective study.