Success and failure in replication of genotype-phenotype associations: How does replication help in understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic variation in outbred populations?

Recent developments in sequencing technologies have facilitated genomewide mapping of phenotypic variation in natural populations. Such mapping efforts face a number of challenges potentially leading to low reproducibility. However, reproducible research forms the basis of scientific progress. We here discuss the options for replication and the reasons for potential nonreproducibility. We then review the evidence for reproducible quantitative trait loci (QTL) with a focus on natural animal populations. Existing case studies of replication fall into three categories: (i) traits that have been mapped to major effect loci (including chromosomal inversion and supergenes) by independent research teams; (ii) QTL fine-mapped in discovery populations; and (iii) attempts to replicate QTL across multiple populations. Major effect loci, in particular those associated with inversions, have been successfully replicated in several cases within and across populations. Beyond such major effect variants, replication has been more successful within than across populations, suggesting that QTL discovered in natural populations may often be population-specific. This suggests that biological causes (differences in linkage patterns, allele frequencies or context-dependencies of QTL) contribute to nonreproducibility. Evidence from other fields, notably animal breeding and QTL mapping in humans, suggests that a significant fraction of QTL is indeed reproducible in direction and magnitude at least within populations. However, there is also a large number of QTL that cannot be easily reproduced. We put forward that more studies should explicitly address the causes and context-dependencies of QTL signals, in particular to disentangle linkage differences, allele frequency differences and gene-by-environment interactions as biological causes of nonreproducibility of QTL, especially between populations.