Evaluation of biological and socio-economic factors related to persistence of African swine fever in Sardinia.

Despite the implementation of several eradication programmes, African swine fever (ASF), a viral disease in pigs caused by a DNA virus (ASFV), has been present in Sardinia (Italy) since 1978. Several studies have been carried out on the epidemiology of ASF in Sardinia, aimed at attaining a better understanding of the role of the risk factors related to ASFV persistence, but those studies did not address the social aspects involved. This work sought to bridge this gap, identifying the main social risk factors associated with ASF persistence. With this aim, this study takes into account not only the known "biological" risk factors identified in previous studies, but also the direct correlation between ASF persistence and well-known socio-economic aspects. The demographic characteristics, the Material Deprivation Index (IDM) and the non-compliance with the rules on ASF controls, including the traditional method of keeping free-range pigs has been evaluated. To assess the weight of each risk factor, data about pig farms, wild boar and social factors in Sardinia, were analysed using the Negative Binomial Regression Model. The main outcome was the number of domestic pig outbreaks occurring in Sardinian during 2011-2016. The effect in terms of the odds ratio (OR) was calculated to each factor included. The biological risk factors identified covered the number of animals (OR = 3.33, p < .0001, by 100 animals) and farms (OR = 1.07, p = .006, by 10 farms), the animal movements (OR = 1.64, p = .001, by 10 movements), the presence of illegal pigs (OR = 6.87, p < .0001) and the ASFV prevalence in wild boars (OR = 1.30, p = .001). Among the socio-economic factors, the compliance with control measures (OR = 0.90, p < .0001), the human population increasing by 1000 people (OR = 0.89, p < .0001), the growing age of the farmers (OR = 0.66, p = .025, by 5 years) and non-relationships with other farms (OR = 0.85, p < .001), decreased the ASF risk. The deprived condition (i.e. cultural and material deprivation, lack of resources and overcrowding index) increases the risk of about four times, as the low educational level (OR = 3.97, p = .002). Having highlighted the important role of social conditions, this risk definition allows understanding the Sardinian situation and may be useful to decision-makers to draft specific control strategies against this disease in the island, which should take into account local risk factors.