Jie Wu1, Shigui Yang1, Kaijin Xu1, Cheng Ding1, Yuqing Zhou1, Xiaofang Fu1, Yiping Li2, Min Deng1, Chencheng Wang1, Xiaoxiao Liu1, Lanjuan Li3. 1. State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. 2. Zhejiang Institute of Medical-care Information Technology, Hangzhou, China. 3. State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. Electronic address: ljli@zju.edu.cn.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. METHODS: Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. METHODS: Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary.