OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. METHODS: The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. RESULTS: Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.
OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. METHODS: The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. RESULTS: Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.
Entities:
Keywords:
epidemiology; research methods; risk stratification; surgery-coronary bypass
Authors: David M Shahian; Sean M O'Brien; Giovanni Filardo; Victor A Ferraris; Constance K Haan; Jeffrey B Rich; Sharon-Lise T Normand; Elizabeth R DeLong; Cynthia M Shewan; Rachel S Dokholyan; Eric D Peterson; Fred H Edwards; Richard P Anderson Journal: Ann Thorac Surg Date: 2009-07 Impact factor: 4.330
Authors: Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Abraham D Flaxman; Goodarz Danaei; Kenji Shibuya; Heather Adair-Rohani; Markus Amann; H Ross Anderson; Kathryn G Andrews; Martin Aryee; Charles Atkinson; Loraine J Bacchus; Adil N Bahalim; Kalpana Balakrishnan; John Balmes; Suzanne Barker-Collo; Amanda Baxter; Michelle L Bell; Jed D Blore; Fiona Blyth; Carissa Bonner; Guilherme Borges; Rupert Bourne; Michel Boussinesq; Michael Brauer; Peter Brooks; Nigel G Bruce; Bert Brunekreef; Claire Bryan-Hancock; Chiara Bucello; Rachelle Buchbinder; Fiona Bull; Richard T Burnett; Tim E Byers; Bianca Calabria; Jonathan Carapetis; Emily Carnahan; Zoe Chafe; Fiona Charlson; Honglei Chen; Jian Shen Chen; Andrew Tai-Ann Cheng; Jennifer Christine Child; Aaron Cohen; K Ellicott Colson; Benjamin C Cowie; Sarah Darby; Susan Darling; Adrian Davis; Louisa Degenhardt; Frank Dentener; Don C Des Jarlais; Karen Devries; Mukesh Dherani; Eric L Ding; E Ray Dorsey; Tim Driscoll; Karen Edmond; Suad Eltahir Ali; Rebecca E Engell; Patricia J Erwin; Saman Fahimi; Gail Falder; Farshad Farzadfar; Alize Ferrari; Mariel M Finucane; Seth Flaxman; Francis Gerry R Fowkes; Greg Freedman; Michael K Freeman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Santu Ghosh; Edward Giovannucci; Gerhard Gmel; Kathryn Graham; Rebecca Grainger; Bridget Grant; David Gunnell; Hialy R Gutierrez; Wayne Hall; Hans W Hoek; Anthony Hogan; H Dean Hosgood; Damian Hoy; Howard Hu; Bryan J Hubbell; Sally J Hutchings; Sydney E Ibeanusi; Gemma L Jacklyn; Rashmi Jasrasaria; Jost B Jonas; Haidong Kan; John A Kanis; Nicholas Kassebaum; Norito Kawakami; Young-Ho Khang; Shahab Khatibzadeh; Jon-Paul Khoo; Cindy Kok; Francine Laden; Ratilal Lalloo; Qing Lan; Tim Lathlean; Janet L Leasher; James Leigh; Yang Li; John Kent Lin; Steven E Lipshultz; Stephanie London; Rafael Lozano; Yuan Lu; Joelle Mak; Reza Malekzadeh; Leslie Mallinger; Wagner Marcenes; Lyn March; Robin Marks; Randall Martin; Paul McGale; John McGrath; Sumi Mehta; George A Mensah; Tony R Merriman; Renata Micha; Catherine Michaud; Vinod Mishra; Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah; Ali A Mokdad; Lidia Morawska; Dariush Mozaffarian; Tasha Murphy; Mohsen Naghavi; Bruce Neal; Paul K Nelson; Joan Miquel Nolla; Rosana Norman; Casey Olives; Saad B Omer; Jessica Orchard; Richard Osborne; Bart Ostro; Andrew Page; Kiran D Pandey; Charles D H Parry; Erin Passmore; Jayadeep Patra; Neil Pearce; Pamela M Pelizzari; Max Petzold; Michael R Phillips; Dan Pope; C Arden Pope; John Powles; Mayuree Rao; Homie Razavi; Eva A Rehfuess; Jürgen T Rehm; Beate Ritz; Frederick P Rivara; Thomas Roberts; Carolyn Robinson; Jose A Rodriguez-Portales; Isabelle Romieu; Robin Room; Lisa C Rosenfeld; Ananya Roy; Lesley Rushton; Joshua A Salomon; Uchechukwu Sampson; Lidia Sanchez-Riera; Ella Sanman; Amir Sapkota; Soraya Seedat; Peilin Shi; Kevin Shield; Rupak Shivakoti; Gitanjali M Singh; David A Sleet; Emma Smith; Kirk R Smith; Nicolas J C Stapelberg; Kyle Steenland; Heidi Stöckl; Lars Jacob Stovner; Kurt Straif; Lahn Straney; George D Thurston; Jimmy H Tran; Rita Van Dingenen; Aaron van Donkelaar; J Lennert Veerman; Lakshmi Vijayakumar; Robert Weintraub; Myrna M Weissman; Richard A White; Harvey Whiteford; Steven T Wiersma; James D Wilkinson; Hywel C Williams; Warwick Williams; Nicholas Wilson; Anthony D Woolf; Paul Yip; Jan M Zielinski; Alan D Lopez; Christopher J L Murray; Majid Ezzati; Mohammad A AlMazroa; Ziad A Memish Journal: Lancet Date: 2012-12-15 Impact factor: 79.321